ArticleTransboundary and emerging diseases2023
Investigation of Risk Factors Associated with the African Swine Fever Outbreaks in the Nizhny Novgorod Region of Russia, 2011-2022.
Article in Transboundary and emerging diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A Systematic Literature Review of Variables Associated with the Occurrence of African Swine Fever.Viruses · 2025Pooled it
- Modelling African Swine Fever Transmission and Epidemiology: A Scoping Review of Mechanistic, Statistical, and Machine Learning Approaches.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Review
- Molecular epidemiology, spatiotemporal patterns, and economic impact of African swine fever in Meghalaya, India.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2026Article
- Risk Factors for African Swine Fever in Wild Boar in Russia: Application of Regression for Classification Algorithms.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2025Article
- Testing a Susceptible Population Density Among Other Explanatory Factors of African Swine Fever Spread in Wild Boar Using the Russian Federation Data, 2007-2023.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2025Article
- Risk and protective factors for ASF in domestic pigs and wild boar in the EU, and mitigation measures for managing the disease in wild boar.EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
African swine fever (ASF) is a transboundary viral disease that affects both domestic pigs and wild boar, causing enormous damage to the pig production. Numerous studies are devoted to elucidating the role of domestic and wild pigs in ASF outbreaks. The identification of the risk factors contributing to the spread of disease in previously unaffected regions is of special interest. We conducted a retrospective analysis of sporadic ASF outbreaks in the Nizhny Novgorod region of the Russian Federation from 2011 to 2022 among both domestic pig and wild boar populations. Methods of spatiotemporal cluster analysis, mathematical modeling with logistic and negative binomial regressions, as well as the cross-correlation analysis of time series, were used to identify the most significant factors associated with the ASF outbreaks' presence and intensity. Regression analysis did not reveal a statistically significant correlation between ASF outbreaks in wild boar and their population density over the entire study period. However, the spatial and temporal coincidence between outbreaks and increased wild boar density was observed at the beginning of the ASF epidemic in the region. We identified the significant environmental and sociodemographic factors contributing to the spread of ASF in both domestic pig and wild boar populations. The number of small-scale farms (backyards) and summary road length were determined as the main factors contributing to the spread of ASF among domestic pigs in the Nizhny Novgorod region. The regression model for ASF outbreaks in the wild boar population revealed the presence of water bodies, number of hunting farms, and the occurrence of ASF outbreaks in the domestic pig population to be the main explanatory factors. A statistically significant coincidence was identified between the monthly volume of pork products imported to the region from the rest of Russia and the occurrence of ASF outbreaks in both domestic and wild populations. Thus, the identified spatiotemporal patterns may be useful to determine areas with an elevated risk of ASF outbreaks emergence for better resource management, disease control, and prevention. The importance of intensified monitoring and control measures in the pig products supply chain is strongly needed. The obtained models can be applied not only by the veterinary service of the Nizhny Novgorod region but to other regions with similar environmental and sociodemographic conditions.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.