ArticleTransboundary and emerging diseases2024
Asymmetric Effects of Weather-Integrated Human Brucellosis Forecasting System Using a New Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model.
Article in Transboundary and emerging diseases, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Multiscale environmental drivers of human brucellosis transmission in Xinjiang: A spatiotemporal analysis integrating GAM and MaxEnt modeling (2015-2023).PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Long- and short-run asymmetric impacts of climate variation on tuberculosis based on a time series study.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Long- and Short-Run Asymmetric Effects of Meteorological Parameters on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Heilongjiang: A Population-Based Retrospective Study.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Human brucellosis (HB) remains a significant public health concern in China. This study aimed to investigate the long- and short-term asymmetric impacts of meteorological variables on HB and develop an early prediction system. Monthly data on HB incidence and meteorological variables were collected from 2005 to 2020. The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) to analyze the long- and short-term effects of climate variables on HB. Subsequently, the data were split into training (from January 2005 to December 2019) and testing parts (from January to December 2020) to develop and validate the forecasting accuracy of both models. During 2005-2020, there were 34,993 HB cases (2.03 per 100,000 persons) and there was an overall rising trend (average annual percentage change = 21.18%, 95%CI 18.36%-26.01%) in HB incidence, peaked in May and troughed in December per year. A 1 m/s increment and decrement in differenced (
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