ArticleTransboundary and emerging diseases2024
Long- and Short-Run Asymmetric Effects of Meteorological Parameters on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Heilongjiang: A Population-Based Retrospective Study.
Article in Transboundary and emerging diseases, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Asymmetric association between meteorological factors and human infections with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: A 16-year ecological trend study in Shaanxi, China.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2024Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
Examining both long-term and short-term effects can enhance the precision and reliability of time series analysis. This study aimed to delve into the asymmetric effects of weather conditions on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in the long and short terms and build a forecasting system. Data comprising monthly HFRS incidents and weather factors in Heilongjiang from January 2004 to December 2019 were extracted. Subsequently, the long- and short-term asymmetric impacts were examined using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) models. Next, the samples were partitioned into training and testing subsets to evaluate the predictive potential of both models. From 2004 to 2019, HFRS exhibited a declining trend (average annual percentage change = -6.744%, 95% CI: -13.52%-0.563%) and a dual seasonal pattern, with a prominent peak in June and a secondary one in October-December. This study identified long-term asymmetric effects of rainfall (Wald long-run asymmetry (WLR) = 3.292,
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