ArticleTransboundary and emerging diseases2024
Mitigating Risk: Predicting H5N1 Avian Influenza Spread with an Empirical Model of Bird Movement.
Article in Transboundary and emerging diseases, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- A phylogeny-informed mathematical modeling of HPAI H5N1 transmission dynamics and effectiveness of control measures.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- A Genomic Catalog of Migratory Microbiomes from Wild Birds across China's Habitats.Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) · 2026Article
- Assessing the Ecological Network of Svalbard Through Scaled Interaction Strength Data: Insights From a Century of Research.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- The role of wild birds in the global highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 panzootic, 2020-2023.npj biodiversity · 2026Review
- Waterfowl Move Less in Heterogeneous and Human-Populated Landscapes, With Implications for Spread of Avian Influenza Viruses.Ecology letters · 2026Article
- Article
- Estimating epidemiological parameters of highly pathogenic avian influenza in common terns using exact Bayesian inference.The Journal of animal ecology · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal Overlap of Mallards With Poultry Farms Is Associated With Greater Risk of Avian Influenza Wild Bird Spillover Events.Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus is a social network problem.PLoS pathogens · 2025Article
- A mathematical model of H5N1 influenza transmission in US dairy cattle.Nature communications · 2025Article
- The potential of remote sensing for improved infectious disease ecology research and practice.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
28 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Understanding timing and distribution of virus spread is critical to global commercial and wildlife biosecurity management. A highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv) global panzootic, affecting ~600 bird and mammal species globally and over 83 million birds across North America (December 2023), poses a serious global threat to animals and public health. We combined a large, long-term waterfowl GPS tracking dataset (16 species) with on-ground disease surveillance data (county-level HPAIv detections) to create a novel empirical model that evaluated spatiotemporal exposure and predicted future spread and potential arrival of HPAIv via GPS tracked migratory waterfowl through 2022. Our model was effective for wild waterfowl, but predictions lagged HPAIv detections in poultry facilities and among some highly impacted nonmigratory species. Our results offer critical advance warning for applied biosecurity management and planning and demonstrate the importance and utility of extensive multispecies tracking to highlight potential high-risk disease spread locations and more effectively manage outbreaks.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.