Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40301350›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Daily rainfall variability controls humid heatwaves in the global tropics and subtropics.

Lawrence S Jackson, Cathryn E Birch, Guillaume Chagnaud, John H Marsham, Christopher M Taylor

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Lawrence S JacksonSchool of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK. l.s.jackson@leeds.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8143-2777
Cathryn E BirchSchool of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9384-2810
Guillaume ChagnaudUK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK.
John H MarshamSchool of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3219-8472
Christopher M TaylorUK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0120-3198

Funding

RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) NE/X013596/1RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) NE/X013618/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Humid heatwaves are a growing risk to human and animal health, especially in tropical regions. While there is established research on dry-bulb temperature heatwaves, greater understanding of the meteorological drivers of extreme humid heat is urgently needed. In this study, we find that recent rainfall is a key control on the occurrence of humid heatwaves in the tropics and subtropics and its effect is regulated by the energy- or moisture-limited state of the land surface. In moisture-limited environments, heatwaves are likely during, or immediately after, enhanced rainfall. In energy-limited environments, heatwaves are likely after suppression of rainfall for two days or longer. The nature of the threat to health from heat stress varies by environment. It depends on local adaptation to temperature or humidity extremes, as well as vulnerability to absolute or anomalous extremes. Early warning systems, which reduce exposure and vulnerability to weather extremes, can benefit from this understanding of humid heatwave drivers, highlighting the possibility of predicting events using satellite-derived rainfall and surface moisture data.

Identifiers

PMID40301350
PMCPMC12041270

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.