ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2025
Stochastic SIRS models on networks: mean and variance of infection.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Due to the heterogeneity of contact structure, it is more reasonable to model on networks for epidemics. Because of the stochastic nature of events and the discrete number of individuals, the spread of epidemics is more appropriately viewed as a Markov chain. Therefore, we establish stochastic SIRS models with vaccination on networks to study the mean and variance of the number of susceptible and infected individuals for large-scale populations. Using van Kampen's system-size expansion, we derive a high-dimensional deterministic system which describes the mean behaviour and a Fokker-Planck equation which characterizes the variance around deterministic trajectories. Utilizing the qualitative analysis technique and Lyapunov function, we demonstrate that the disease-free equilibrium of the deterministic system is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number
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