Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40289804›Full record

Observational studyCirculation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes2025

Performance of the American Heart Association PREVENT Cardiovascular Risk Equations in Older Adults.

Michelle A Fravel, Michael E Ernst, Robyn L Woods, Suzanne G Orchard, Shiva Ganjali, James B Wetmore, Christopher Reid, Joanne Ryan, Kevan R Polkinghorne, Rory Wolfe and 3 more

Registry-linked trialAbstract readComparative StudyMulticenter StudyObservational Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Observational study in Circulation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT01038583 (Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly), which is not on this map. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT01038583 unknown statusnot on this map

Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly

TypeobservationalSponsorHennepin Healthcare Research InstituteRan2010 to 2024Enrolled19,114ConditionsFunctional Disability, Dementia, Heart Disease, StrokeArms100 mg enteric-coated aspirin, Placebo
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Cardiovascular Risk Prediction in Older Adults.Current atherosclerosis reports · 2025
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Michelle A FravelDepartment of Pharmacy Practice and Science, College of Pharmacy (M.A.F., M.E.E.), The University of Iowa.ORCID 0000-0002-0697-2957
Michael E ErnstDepartment of Pharmacy Practice and Science, College of Pharmacy (M.A.F., M.E.E.), The University of Iowa.ORCID 0000-0003-0267-4888
Robyn L WoodsSchool of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (R.L.W., S.G.O., C.R., J.R., K.R.P., R.W., M.R.N., S.Z., Z.Z.).ORCID 0000-0003-1249-6149
Suzanne G OrchardSchool of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (R.L.W., S.G.O., C.R., J.R., K.R.P., R.W., M.R.N., S.Z., Z.Z.).ORCID 0000-0003-0211-3183
Shiva GanjaliFaculty of Health, IMPACT-the Institute for Mental and Physical Health and Clinical Translation, School of Medicine, Deakin University, Geelong, Victoria, Australia (S.G.).ORCID 0000-0002-7446-3927
James B WetmoreDepartment of Medicine, Hennepin Healthcare Systems, Minneapolis, MN (J.B.W.).ORCID 0000-0003-1380-8597
Christopher ReidSchool of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (R.L.W., S.G.O., C.R., J.R., K.R.P., R.W., M.R.N., S.Z., Z.Z.).ORCID 0000-0001-9173-3944
Joanne RyanSchool of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (R.L.W., S.G.O., C.R., J.R., K.R.P., R.W., M.R.N., S.Z., Z.Z.).ORCID 0000-0002-7039-6325
Kevan R PolkinghorneSchool of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (R.L.W., S.G.O., C.R., J.R., K.R.P., R.W., M.R.N., S.Z., Z.Z.).
Rory WolfeSchool of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (R.L.W., S.G.O., C.R., J.R., K.R.P., R.W., M.R.N., S.Z., Z.Z.).ORCID 0000-0002-2126-1045
Mark R NelsonSchool of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (R.L.W., S.G.O., C.R., J.R., K.R.P., R.W., M.R.N., S.Z., Z.Z.).ORCID 0000-0001-9941-7161
Sophia ZoungasSchool of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (R.L.W., S.G.O., C.R., J.R., K.R.P., R.W., M.R.N., S.Z., Z.Z.).
Zhen ZhouSchool of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (R.L.W., S.G.O., C.R., J.R., K.R.P., R.W., M.R.N., S.Z., Z.Z.).ORCID 0000-0002-0835-8686

Funding

ASPirin in Reducing Events in the ElderlyU01AG029824 · NIA · HENNEPIN HEALTHCARE RESEARCH INSTITUTE · PI MCNEIL, JOHN JAMES, MURRAY, ANNE M · 2009 to 2018
$64.6M
Main Administrative CoreU19AG062682 · NIA · HENNEPIN HEALTHCARE RESEARCH INSTITUTE · PI MURRAY, ANNE M · 2019 to 2023
$42.9M
NIA NIH HHS U01 AG029824NIA NIH HHS U19 AG062682
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe ability of the American Heart Association Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events (PREVENT) calculator to accurately assign 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk in older individuals, including those aged ≥80 years, is unknown. This study compares PREVENT with the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) calculator for predicting 10-year ASCVD risk in a large cohort of older adults.

methodsThis was a prospective cohort study of adults without CVD from Australia and the United States aged ≥70 years (≥65 years, if US minorities). They were enrolled from 2010 to 2014 in the ASPREE trial (Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly), a 5-year randomized trial of low-dose aspirin in community-dwelling older adults with posttrial observational follow-up extending to 2022. ASCVD events were adjudicated by expert panels. The discriminative ability of the 2 risk calculators was assessed by Harell C statistic following Cox regression in the 65- to 79-year age group and >80-year age group, separately. For calibration, predicted event numbers were calculated using PREVENT and PCE, scaled for the actual length of follow-up, and compared with the number of observed events in-trial and during extended follow-up.

resultsAmong the 15 510 participants aged 65 to 79 years (median age, 73.2 years; 56.1% women), 1084 ASCVD events occurred (median follow-up, 8.3 years); PCE predicted 3102 events while PREVENT predicted 1290 events. For the 2787 participants ≥80 years (median age, 82.6 years; 59.2% women), 355 ASCVD events occurred (median follow-up, 7.4 years); PCE predicted 1067 events while PREVENT predicted 350 events. PREVENT showed superior discriminative performance compared with PCE (PREVENT versus PCE, C statistic, 0.793 versus 0.740;

conclusionsThe PREVENT risk calculator is superior to the PCE calculator in predicting ASCVD events in older adults from the United States and Australia, including those aged ≥80 years. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01038583. URL: https://www.isrctn.com; Unique identifier: ISRCTN83772183.

Indexed as

American Heart AssociationCardiovascular DiseasesDecision Support TechniquesAgedAged, 80 and overAge FactorsAspirinAustraliaFemaleHeart Disease Risk FactorsHumansMalePredictive Value of TestsPrognosisProspective StudiesRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicAspirinadultsAmerican Heart AssociationAustraliacardiovascular diseasesUnited States

Identifiers

PMID40289804
PMCPMC12173798

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.