Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40281486›Full record

ArticleBMC geriatrics2025

The effects of public long-term care insurance on the long-term care industry in China: a quasi-experimental study.

Zhongbin Huang, Anqi Jian, Jing Wang, He Chen

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC geriatrics, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Zhongbin HuangInstitution of Sociology, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China.
Anqi JianSchool of Sociology, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Jing WangInstitution of Sociology, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China.
He ChenSchool of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China, No. 59, Zhongguancun Street, Haidian District, Beijing, 100872, P.R. China. chenhe2019@ruc.edu.cn.

Funding

National Science Foundation of China 19BSH171the Renmin University of China Capital Development and Governance Institute 2024B-16
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMeeting the increasing need for long-term care (LTC) is a pressing issue for aging societies worldwide. The public long-term care insurance (LTCI) scheme offers a potential solution to this challenge. However, limited research has been conducted on the scheme's impact on the LTC industry. Utilizing the unique research opportunity presented by the pilot LTCI scheme in China, this study evaluated the policy effects on the LTC industry and investigated the heterogeneity of these effects.

methodsThe unit of analysis was prefecture-level cities. We collected over 456 thousand records of registration information for LTC organizations from three national platforms, which were then aggregated at the city level. The development of the LTC industry in each city was measured using two dependent variables: the annual increase in the number and registered capital of LTC organizations. We collected city-level socioeconomic and demographic confounding factors from the China City Statistical Yearbooks and census data. These data constituted an unbalanced panel dataset of 3,949 city-year observations for 289 prefecture-level cities. We employed a staggered difference-in-differences model to evaluate the policy effects.

resultsThe LTCI scheme led to an additional increase of 157.85 (95% CI: 124.23-191.46) in the number of LTC organizations and of 3.44 billion yuan (US$531.48 million; 95% CI: 2.46-4.43) in the registered capital of LTC organizations per city. The policy effects were particularly pronounced for LTC organizations providing non-residential care services or operating as enterprises. For instance, the scheme resulted in an additional increase of 156.27 (95% CI: 122.68-189.85) in the number of non-residential care organizations, nearly 95 times greater than the increase for residential care organizations (1.65; 95% CI 0.05-3.24). Similarly, the scheme led to an additional increase of 157.54 enterprises per city (95% CI: 125.41-189.67), a substantially greater effect than that observed for individual businesses (6.39; 95% CI: 1.55-11.24). However, it did not affect the number of LTC organizations operating as civil non-enterprises or public institutions.

conclusionThese findings highlight the significant impact of public LTCI scheme on the growth of the LTC industry, particularly for non-residential care services and enterprise-operated organizations.

Indexed as

Insurance, Long-Term CareLong-Term CareChinaHumansChinaLong-term care industryLong-term care insuranceQuasi-experiment

Identifiers

PMID40281486
PMCPMC12023454

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.