Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40281326›Full record

Trial reportLeukemia2025

Prediction of resistance to hydroxyurea therapy in patients with polycythemia vera: a machine learning study (PV-AIM) validated in a prospective interventional phase IV trial (HU-F-AIM).

Florian H Heidel, Valerio De Stefano, Matthias Zaiss, Jens Kisro, Eva Gückel, Susanne Großer, Mike W Zuurman, Kirsi Manz, Kenneth Bryan, Armita Afsharinejad and 2 more

Abstract readClinical Trial, Phase IV
In one paragraph

Trial report in Leukemia, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Florian H HeidelHematology, Hemostasis, Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation, Hannover Medical School (MHH), Hannover, Germany. heidel.florian@mh-hannover.de.ORCID 0000-0003-2438-1955
Valerio De StefanoSezione di Ematologia, Dipartimento di Scienze Radiologiche ed Ematologiche, Università Cattolica, Fondazione Policlinico A. Gemelli IRCCS, Roma, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-5178-5827
Matthias ZaissPraxis Interdisziplinäre Onkologie und Hämatologie, Freiburg, Germany.
Jens KisroLuebecker Onkologische Schwerpunktpraxis, Luebeck, Germany.
Eva GückelNovartis Pharma GmbH, Nuremberg, Germany.
Susanne GroßerNovartis Pharma GmbH, Nuremberg, Germany.
Mike W ZuurmanNovartis Pharma GmbH, Nuremberg, Germany.
Kirsi ManzHematology, Hemostasis, Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation, Hannover Medical School (MHH), Hannover, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-7740-4076
Kenneth BryanNovartis Ireland Limited, Dublin, Ireland.
Armita AfsharinejadNovartis Ireland Limited, Dublin, Ireland.
Martin GriesshammerUniversity Clinic for Hematology, Oncology, Hemostaseology and Palliative Care, Johannes Wesling Medical Center Minden, UKRUB, University of Bochum, Bochum, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-8718-7004
Jean-Jacques KiladjianUniversité de Paris, AP-HP, Hôpital Saint-Louis, Centre d'Investigations Cliniques, INSERM, CIC1427, Paris, France.

Funding

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation) 517204983.
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Polycythemia vera (PV) is a myeloproliferative neoplasm associated with increased thromboembolic (TE) risk and hematologic complications. Hydroxyurea (HU) serves as the most frequently used first-line cytoreductive therapy worldwide; however, resistance to HU (HU-RES) develops in a significant subset of patients, leading to increased morbidity and necessitating alternative treatments. This study, part of the PV-AIM project, employed machine learning techniques on real-world evidence (RWE) from the Optum® EHR database containing 82.960 PV patients to identify baseline predictors of HU-RES within the first 6-9 months of therapy. Using a Random Forest model, the study analyzed data from 1850 patients, focusing on laboratory parameters and clinical characteristics. Key predictive markers included red cell distribution width (RDW) and hemoglobin (HGB), showing the strongest association with HU-RES. A synergistic interaction between RDW and HGB was identified, enabling TE risk stratification. This study provides a robust framework for early detection of HU-RES using readily available clinical data, facilitating timely intervention. These findings underscore the importance of personalized treatment approaches in managing PV and highlight the utility of machine learning in enhancing predictive accuracy and clinical outcomes. Based on the results of PV-AIM we initiated an open-label, prospective, single-arm, interventional, phase IV study (HU-F-AIM) evaluating HU-resistance/intolerance. Validation of predictive biomarkers may facilitate identification of patients at risk of HU resistance who may benefit from alternative treatment options, possibly preventing ongoing phlebotomy during HU treatment, a frequent therapeutic choice in high-risk PV associated with early disease progression and increased thromboembolic complications. We propose an updated terminology that differentiates between true molecular resistance and clinical resistance, that may indicate the requirement for alternative therapeutic strategies.

Indexed as

Drug Resistance, NeoplasmHydroxyureaMachine LearningPolycythemia VeraAdultAgedFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisProspective StudiesHydroxyurea

Identifiers

PMID40281326
PMCPMC12208875

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.