ArticleOne health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)2025
How virus migration and meteorological elements shape the seasonality of influenza a/H3N2: A case study in China.
Article in One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Epidemic Pattern Changes in Influenza A and B and Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pediatric Respiratory Infections During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic Restrictions in Northwest China.Current microbiology · 2026Article
- Incorporating meteorological factors into a SARIMA model for predicting pediatric influenza epidemics.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
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13 authors.
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Abstract
Recent global influenza resurgences, escalating to pandemics, emphasize the urgency for effective vaccinations. Despite their efficacy, vaccines offer limited protection against A/H3N2 variants. Thus, elucidating the spatial patterns and underlying drivers of A/H3N2 seasonality is critical for its management. However, the mechanisms governing this seasonality are not fully understood. The study conducted a collaborative and interdisciplinary analysis of influenza A/H3N2 epidemiology in China from 2012 to 2018, utilizing national influenza surveillance data, viral gene sequence data, and meteorological information. We initially examined the spatiotemporal distribution of influenza A/H3N2 across different temperate zones in China. Subsequently, we employed Bayesian "SkyGrid" reconstruction analysis to gain insights into the population dynamics of the influenza A/H3N2 virus within China's temperature zones. Additionally, we utilized generalized additive models (GAM) to assess the influence of meteorological factors on the seasonal prevalence of influenza A/H3N2. Our analysis of China's national influenza data revealed distinct seasonal patterns for A/H3N2: winter epidemics prevailed in temperate zones, while summer and autumn outbreaks occurred in subtropical and tropical areas. The seasonality of influenza A/H3N2 across China's diverse climatic zones is shaped by the interplay of virus migration and meteorological factors. Virus migration introduced new variant populations during seasonal epidemics of influenza A/H3N2 to different temperature zones in China, thereby seeding subsequent seasonal outbreaks. Our findings also indicate that meteorological elements trigger influenza A/H3N2 activity following virus migration. Moreover, the spatial variations in influenza A/H3N2 seasonality in China can be attributed to specific temperature thresholds, approximately 1 °C and 24 °C. These thresholds could serve as potential indicators for A/H3N2 prevalence. This insight is invaluable for tailoring region-specific prevention and control strategies in China and other regions with similar environmental conditions.
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