Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40276649›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Western Pacific2025

Progress towards the UNAIDS 2030 HIV prevention target in New South Wales, Australia: a population-based study.

Phillip Keen, Steven J Nigro, Curtis Chan, Benjamin R Bavinton, Htein Linn Aung, Martin Holt, Rebecca Guy, Janaki Amin, Timothy R Broady, Jane Costello and 6 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Phillip KeenThe Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Steven J NigroNew South Wales Ministry of Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Curtis ChanThe Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Benjamin R BavintonThe Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Htein Linn AungThe Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Martin HoltCentre for Social Research in Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Rebecca GuyThe Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Janaki AminNew South Wales Ministry of Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Timothy R BroadyCentre for Social Research in Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Jane CostelloPositive Life NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Anthony D KelleherThe Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Carla TreloarCentre for Social Research in Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Rick VarmaSydney Sexual Health Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Matthew VaughanACON, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Valerie DelpechNew South Wales Ministry of Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Andrew E GrulichThe Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: The UNAIDS ending AIDS strategy includes a 2030 prevention target of a 90% reduction in new infections from 2010. We report progress towards this goal in gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBM) in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Methods: We report HIV notification data for people newly diagnosed by exposure category, with a focus on GBM who comprised more than three-quarters of diagnoses. We report HIV testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis, HIV treatment, and undetectable viral load based on surveys of community-based GBM and data from a sentinel surveillance network of 50 clinics. We report trends between 2010 and 2022, including by geography grouped by postcodes with high-, medium- and low-prevalence of gay residents. Trends were assessed using the chi-square test for linear trend. Findings: Statewide, annual notifications declined by 56% in GBM, and declines were much greater in inner-Sydney postcodes with a high percentage of gay residents compared to postcodes with a low percentage (88% and 32%). Among community-recruited GBM, annual HIV testing and PrEP uptake increased over time and by 2022 were higher in the high- (91% and 82%) than low-gay prevalence postcodes (78% and 61%). In the clinic sample, HIV testing and PrEP use increased but there was no evidence that they differed by geography. In both samples, among GBM living with HIV, the percentages on HIV treatment and with undetectable viral load increased over time, and by 2022 were greater than 95%. Interpretation: HIV notifications in GBM in NSW have dropped by more than half since 2010. In inner Sydney areas with a high prevalence of gay men, prevention uptake was highest, and the decline in notifications approached 90%. Declines in HIV notifications were more modest elsewhere, and prevention uptake lower. Currently available prevention interventions, if extended population-wide, can enable a 90% reduction in new HIV infections in GBM, consistent with the ending AIDS target. Funding: This project was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council and the NSW Ministry of Health.

Indexed as

Gay and bisexual menHIV preventionHIV testingHIV treatmentPre-exposure prophylaxisUndetectable viral load

Identifiers

PMID40276649
PMCPMC12019848

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.