ArticleBMC geriatrics2025
Development and validation of a clinical-friendly model for predicting 180-day mortality in the older with community-acquired pneumonia.
Article in BMC geriatrics, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Clinical characteristics and risk factors associated with mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia in the intensive care unit.Journal of thoracic disease · 2026Article
- A Clinical Prediction Model for Atypical Tuberculosis Manifestations Among Older Adults.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveCurrently, there is no effective way to identify older patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) at high risk of long-term death. We aimed to develop and validate a pneumonia scoring system to predict 180-day mortality, and compare its performance with the commonly used CURB-65 score.
methodsThe prospective cohort study enrolled patients aged 65 years and older with CAP from 10 medical centers in China between April 2021 and December 2023. The primary outcome was 180-day mortality. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop a new pneumonia scoring system, and the area under the time-dependent curve (AUC) was used to assess its discriminatory power. Internal validation was performed using both bootstrap resampling and 10-fold cross-validation. The model was visualized by a nomogram and a questionnaire. The optimal cutoff value of the nomogram was determined based on the maximum Youden index for the 180-day mortality prediction, dividing patients into high- and low-risk groups. The performance of model in predicting both short- and long-term mortality was compared with CURB-65 using AUC, sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value and positive predictive value.
resultsA total of 619 patients, with a median age of 78 years (IQR: 70.5-85.0), were included in the analysis. The 180-day mortality was 6.9%. The model was developed using six variables, including age, the ratio of pulse oximetry saturation (SpO
conclusionsThis study developed and validated a prediction model for long-term mortality in older patients with CAP, showing better discriminatory power and accuracy over CURB-65.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.