ArticleBMC medical research methodology2025
Enhancing public health surveillance: SARIMAX model incorporating Baidu search index for HCV prediction in China.
Article in BMC medical research methodology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Predicting the incidence of syphilis in China using Baidu search index and an ARIMAX model.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- An ARIMAX model integrating Baidu index for improved hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence prediction.Scientific reports · 2026Article
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10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundHepatitis C virus (HCV) has become a serious global public health issue. Existing study has confirmed the potential role of internet search data in the prediction of infectious diseases. This study aims to explore predictive models suitable for HCV, providing references and recommendations for actively responding to the World Health Organization's strategy to eliminate HCV by 2030.
methodsWe collected the publicly available daily reported case numbers of HCV and the daily search volume of HCV-related keywords in Baidu Search Index (BSI) from January 2011 to September 2023. Identify keywords highly correlated with HCV using Spearman rank correlation and time series cross-correlation analysis to construct a comprehensive search index. Finally, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) models were developed based on monthly HCV case numbers and the comprehensive search index (CSI). The performance of these predictive models was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).
resultsFrom January 2011 to September 2023, China reported a cumulative total of 2,949,160 HCV cases, with a monthly average case number of 19,276. The incidence of HCV is highest in March each year, with a slight decrease in February, exhibiting a seasonal cycle pattern. Influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, the incidence of HCV showed a notable decrease in 2020 and 2022, but overall, it has been on an upward trend. After correlation analysis, a total of five keywords were included, with a potential time lag of 0 months for the keywords. The selected SARIMA(0,1,1)(2,1,1)
conclusionsThe findings suggest that the SARIMA(0,1,1)(2,1,1)
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