Research and predictive analysis of the disease burden of bloodstream infectious diseases in China.

backgroundBloodstream Infection(BSI) are one of the leading causes of infection-related mortality worldwide. However, epidemiological data related to BSI in China remain very limited.

methodsBased on the Global Burden of Disease(GBD) database, a systematic analysis was conducted on the epidemic trends, pathogen spectrum, and the current status of Antimicrobial Resistance(AMR) related to BSI in China for the year 2021. Additionally, an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) time series model was constructed to predict the trend of the disease burden associated with BSI in China from 2022 to 2035.

resultsIn terms of pathogens, the top five pathogens causing deaths due to BSI in China are as follows: Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Acinetobacter baumannii. There are significant differences in the pathogens causing BSI across different age groups. The disease burden is heaviest in the elderly population aged 70 and above. Among children under five years old, Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Candida species are predominant. From 1990 to 2021, although there has been a gradual decline in mortality rates due to BSI across different age groups (with an approximately 52.4% reduction in age-standardized rates), the disease burden of BSI increases with age. This is especially evident in the population aged 70 and above, where the burden of disease is significantly higher than in other age groups. For instance, in 2021, the mortality rate for individuals aged 70-74 was 149.29 (per 100 K), while for those aged 95 and older, the mortality rate reached as high as 896.71 (per 100 K). On a global scale, the disease burden caused by BSI in China is at a moderate level. According to time series model projections, the mortality burden of BSI in China shows a complex trend toward 2035: the crude mortality rate across all age groups is expected to increase by approximately 14.26%, whereas the age-standardized mortality rate and Disability-Adjusted Life Years(DALYs) are projected to decrease significantly. Notably, the mortality burden is expected to decline most prominently in the 70 + and under 5 age groups, while the 25-44 age group is projected to see minimal change. Conversely, the mortality rates for the 5-49 age group are anticipated to increase slightly.

conclusionStaphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli are key pathogens contributing to the high mortality burden of BSI. Additionally, the heavy burden associated with AMR poses significant challenges to clinical treatment. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized mortality rate mortality of BSI patients is gradually decreasing, and the change in BSI mortality will be mainly affected by the changes in population size and age structure. The forecast analysis for 2022-2035 finds that the death burden of the elderly will be the heaviest, and the mortality of people aged 5-49 years will increase slightly. BSI and its related health problems are still major challenges and need continuous attention. CLINICAL TRIAL: Inapplicability.