Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40263258›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world.

Sijia Wu, Ming Luo, Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau, Wei Zhang, Lin Wang, Zhen Liu, Lijie Lin, Yijing Wang, Erjia Ge, Jianfeng Li and 11 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

21 authors.

Sijia Wu *Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Ming Luo *Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China. luom38@mail.sysu.edu.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5474-3892
Gabriel Ngar-Cheung LauProgram in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Wei ZhangDepartment of Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8134-6908
Lin WangCenter for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3557-1853
Zhen LiuEarth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences (EOAS) Thrust, Function Hub, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, China.
Lijie LinSchool of Management, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, China.
Yijing WangShanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP3), Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Erjia GeDalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Jianfeng LiDepartment of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, N.T., Hong Kong, China.
Yuanchao FanInstitute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3462-1820
Yimin ChenGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Weilin LiaoGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9681-6631
Xiaoyu WangGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Xiaocong XuGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3773-0811
Zhixin QiGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Ziwei HuangGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Faith Ka Shun ChanSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6091-6596
David Yongqin ChenSchool of Humanities and Social Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China.
Xiaoping LiuGuangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China. liuxp3@mail.sysu.edu.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4242-5392
Tao PeiState Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. peit@lreis.ac.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5311-8761

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Rapid temperature flips are sudden shifts from extreme warm to cold or vice versa-both challenge humans and ecosystems by leaving a very short time to mitigate two contrasting extremes, but are yet to be understood. Here, we provide a global assessment of rapid temperature flips from 1961 to 2100. Warm-to-cold flips favorably follow wetter and cloudier conditions, while cold-to-warm flips exhibit an opposite feature. Of the global areas defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, over 60% have experienced more frequent, intense, and rapid flips since 1961, and this trend will expand to most areas in the future. During 2071-2100 under SSP5-8.5, we detect increases of 6.73-8.03% in flip frequency (relative to 1961-1990), 7.16-7.32% increases in intensity, and 2.47-3.24% decreases in transition duration. Global population exposure will increase over onefold, which is exacerbated in low-income countries (4.08-6.49 times above the global average). Our findings underscore the urgency to understand and mitigate the accelerating hazard flips under global warming.

Identifiers

PMID40263258
PMCPMC12015231

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.