Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40255934›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Europe2025

The burden of informal family caregiving in Europe, 2000-2050: a microsimulation modelling study.

Andrea Cattaneo, Andrea Vitali, Daniele Regazzoni, Caterina Rizzi

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet regional health. Europe, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Coming to terms with the need for home care: a reflexive thematic analysis of older adults' experiences in Sweden.International journal of qualitative studies on health and well-being · 2026
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  6. Support exchange between siblings in later life: the role of "core-kinlessness" and geographic proximity.The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Andrea CattaneoDepartment of Management, Information and Production Engineering, University of Bergamo, Bergamo, Italy.
Andrea VitaliDepartment of Management, Information and Production Engineering, University of Bergamo, Bergamo, Italy.
Daniele RegazzoniDepartment of Management, Information and Production Engineering, University of Bergamo, Bergamo, Italy.
Caterina RizziDepartment of Management, Information and Production Engineering, University of Bergamo, Bergamo, Italy.

Funding

Enhancing the Comparability of SHARE with HRS and ELSAR01AG052527 · NIA · MAX PLANCK INST/SOCIAL LAW/SOCIAL POLICY · PI BOERSCH-SUPAN, AXEL H · 2016 to 2020
$2.1M
NIA NIH HHS HHSN271201300071CNIA NIH HHS R01 AG052527
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: The demand for informal care in Europe is increasing, with family members often providing essential support. However, the future burden of informal family caregiving remains unclear. This study estimates and projects trends in the burden of family caregiving across 31 European countries from 2000 to 2050. Methods: We developed a demographic microsimulation model to estimate and project family care burden. The model produces virtual populations with realistic kinship networks and health trajectories over time. From these kinship structures, we defined a novel metric - Years Lived Caregiving for older relatives (YLCs). It accounts for care recipients' disability severity, care dynamics within kinship networks, and national institutional care capacity. Model inputs included demographic data from UN World Population Prospects, marital statistics from Eurostat, disease prevalence from the Global Burden of Disease study, and microdata from the SHARE survey. Findings: From 2000 to 2050, in Europe the overall burden for informal care is projected to increase by +49.7% (95% UI 45-53.6), from 7.98 (7.65-8.28) to 11.9 (11.4-12.5) million YLC. Musculoskeletal disorders are the largest cause of care burden, contributing to 2.3 (2.18-2.42) million YLC in 2050. Burden of informal care is disproportionally higher for women, although the gender gap is in a descending trend. Interpretation: Projections indicate a substantial rise in the informal family care burden across Europe by 2050, with only limited offsetting from institutional care. These findings underscore the need for comprehensive strategies to support both caregivers and care recipients, ensuring sustainable healthcare systems across Europe. Funding: Italian government and the European Union, National Plan for NRRP Complementary Investments (PNC).

Indexed as

Caregiver burdenComputational modellingInformal caregiversLong-term carePopulation ageing

Identifiers

PMID40255934
PMCPMC12008708

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.