ArticlePsychometrika2025
Stacking Models of Growth: A Methodology for Predicting the Pace of Progress to the Education Sustainable Development Targets Using International Large-Scale Assessments.
Article in Psychometrika, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
To assess country-level progress toward these educational goals it is important to monitor trends in educational outcomes over time. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate how optimally predictive growth models can be constructed to monitor the pace of progress at which countries are moving toward (or way from) the education sustainable development goals as specified by the United Nations. A number of growth curve models can be specified to estimate the pace of progress, however, choosing one model and using it for predictive purposes assumes that the chosen model is the one that generated the data, and this choice runs the risk of "over-confident inferences and decisions that are more risky than one thinks they are" (Hoeting et al., 1999). To mitigate this problem, we adapt and apply
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