Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40253566›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2025

Global burden trends and forecasts for MAFLD in adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2021.

Shiying Ruan, Liyuan Huang, Jie Song, Zusong Yi, Weipeng Sun, Fankun Zhou, Chang Feng, Guihua Du, Jie Xie, Yuanan Lu and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Shiying Ruan *Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Prevention and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Jiangxi Medical Center for Critical Public Health Events, The First Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, 330052, People's Republic of China.
Liyuan Huang *Department of Occupational Health and Toxicology, School of Public Health, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330006, People's Republic of China.
Jie SongJiangxi Province Healthcare Security Monitoring Center, Nanchang, 330006, Jiangxi, People's Republic of China.
Zusong YiJiangxi Province Healthcare Security Monitoring Center, Nanchang, 330006, Jiangxi, People's Republic of China.
Weipeng SunDepartment of Occupational Health and Toxicology, School of Public Health, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330006, People's Republic of China.
Fankun ZhouDepartment of Occupational Health and Toxicology, School of Public Health, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330006, People's Republic of China.
Chang FengDepartment of Occupational Health and Toxicology, School of Public Health, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330006, People's Republic of China.
Guihua DuDepartment of Occupational Health and Toxicology, School of Public Health, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330006, People's Republic of China.
Jie XieDepartment of Occupational Health and Toxicology, School of Public Health, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330006, People's Republic of China.
Yuanan LuDepartment of Public Health Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, 96822, USA. yuanan@hawaii.edu.
Guangqin FanDepartment of Occupational Health and Toxicology, School of Public Health, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330006, People's Republic of China. fanguangqin@ncu.edu.cn.

Funding

and the Medical Ideological and Political Program of The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University No. NDYFY_SZ2023029the Humanities and Social Sciences Program of Jiangxi Province Colleges and universities No.GL162033the Key Project of Science and Technology Program of Jiangxi Provincial Department of Education No. GJJ210130the Technology Program of Jiangxi Provincial Health Commission No. 202410021
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Metabolic-dysfunction associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a widespread chronic liver condition that has been steadily increasing among adolescents and young adults in recent years, posing a major global public health concern. This study aims to conduct an in-depth analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data on MAFLD, focusing on prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for individuals aged 15-39, spanning the period from 1990 to 2021. This research examines data from the GBD study covering 1990 to 2021 to assess the prevalence, incidence, and DALYs associated with of MAFLD in adolescents and young adults aged 15-39. The analysis is broken down by socioeconomic status, geographic regions, and specific countries. Advanced statistical methods, including the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling, were used to deliver the most current and thorough epidemiological assessment of MAFLD in this demographic. In 2021, the estimated global cases of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease among adolescents and young adults reached approximately 423 million, representing a 75.31% increase from 1990. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) was 14,221.32 cases per 100,000 population, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 977.61 cases per 100,000 population in 2021. Between 1990 and 2021, the ASPR, ASIR, age-standardized DALY rate, and age-standardized mortality rate showed a continuous upward trend, with EAPC of 0.84, 0.79, 0.65, and 0.81, respectively. Regions with Middle and Low-middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), as well as High-middle SDI, emerged as "hotspots" for MAFLD prevalence, particularly in North Africa, the Middle East, East Asia, and South Asia. Males exhibited higher prevalence rates compared to females, and the rates continued to increase across all adolescents and young adult age groups. By 2050, the ASPR for MAFLD among this population is projected to reach 16,101 cases per 100,000, signaling an alarming trend. Over the last 30 years, the burden of metabolic-dysfunction associated fatty liver disease has significantly increased among adolescents and young adults worldwide. To counter this rising global health concern, it is crucial to develop and implement targeted and effective interventions tailored to socio-economic settings.

Indexed as

Global Burden of DiseaseNon-alcoholic Fatty Liver DiseaseAdolescentAdultDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleForecastingGlobal HealthHumansIncidenceMalePrevalenceYoung AdultAdolescents and young adultsGlobal Burden of Disease (GBD)MAFLD in youthMetabolic-dysfunction associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD)Systematic analysis

Identifiers

PMID40253566
PMCPMC12009366

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.