Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40242465›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Western Pacific2025

Informing health system planning for biomarker-based treatment: statistical prevalence projections for solid cancers with key pan-tumour biomarkers (dMMR, MSI, high TMB) in Australia to 2042.

Yoon-Jung Kang, Qingwei Luo, Joachim Worthington, Anna Kelly, Jeff Cuff, John Zalcberg, Karen Canfell, Julia Steinberg

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Yoon-Jung KangThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, NSW, 2011, Australia.
Qingwei LuoThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, NSW, 2011, Australia.
Joachim WorthingtonThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, NSW, 2011, Australia.
Anna KellyThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, NSW, 2011, Australia.
Jeff CuffResearch Advocate, The Daffodil Centre, NSW, 2011, Australia.
John ZalcbergDepartment of Medical Oncology, Alfred Health and School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Monash University, VIC, 3004, Australia.
Karen CanfellSchool of Public Health, The University of Sydney, NSW, 2050, Australia.
Julia SteinbergThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, NSW, 2011, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Targeted cancer treatment based on mismatch repair deficiency (dMMR), microsatellite instability (MSI), or high tumour mutational burden (TMB) holds promise for improving patient outcomes, but presents substantial healthcare costs. Methods: Using validated statistical methods, we projected 1-year to 5-year prevalence of individuals diagnosed with solid tumours exhibiting these biomarkers in Australia to 2042, for all solid cancers combined and 23 individual cancer types/groups, and separately for all stages combined, advanced disease at diagnosis (here, distant metastasis/lymph node involvement), and advanced disease after progression post-diagnosis. Findings: The 5-year prevalence of individuals diagnosed with any solid cancer regardless of biomarker status is estimated to increase by 54·2%, from 438,346 in 2018 to 675,722 in 2042 (advanced disease at diagnosis: by 37·6% from 109,855 to 151,199), primarily due to population growth and ageing. The 5-year prevalence of individuals whose tumours exhibit a biomarker is estimated to increase accordingly, e.g. for advanced disease at diagnosis, from 3983 to 5448 for dMMR, from 2484 to 3553 for MSI, and from 13,310 to 17,893 for high TMB (representing 3·6%, 2·3% and 11·8% of 5-year prevalence of individuals with advanced disease at diagnosis, respectively; noting considerable overlap in the presence of these biomarkers). Interpretation: We present the first long-term projections for cancer prevalence associated with key pan-tumour biomarkers in Australia, to inform health policy and healthcare planning for targeted therapies. Funding: Medical Research Future Fund-Preventive and Public Health Research Initiative-2019 Targeted Health System and Community Organization Research Grant Opportunity (MRF1200535), Cancer Institute NSW Career Development Fellowship (2022/CDF1154), National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia Investigator Grant (APP1194679).

Indexed as

Cancer prevalenceMicrosatellite instabilityMismatch repair deficiencyPan-tumour biomarkerTumour mutational burden

Identifiers

PMID40242465
PMCPMC12002892

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.