Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40242322›Full record

ArticleLancet regional health. Americas2025

Type 2 diabetes and cause-specific mortality in Mexico City: a Mendelian randomisation analysis.

Fiona Bragg, Pablo Kuri-Morales, Eirini Trichia, Jason M Torres, Paulina Baca, Adrián Garcilazo-Ávila, Carlos González-Carballo, Raul Ramirez-Reyes, Fernando Rivas, Diego Aguilar-Ramirez and 12 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Lancet regional health. Americas, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

22 authors.

Fiona BraggClinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Pablo Kuri-MoralesFaculty of Medicine, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
Eirini TrichiaClinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Jason M TorresClinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Paulina BacaExperimental Research Unit from the Faculty of Medicine, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
Adrián Garcilazo-ÁvilaExperimental Research Unit from the Faculty of Medicine, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
Carlos González-CarballoExperimental Research Unit from the Faculty of Medicine, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
Raul Ramirez-ReyesExperimental Research Unit from the Faculty of Medicine, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
Fernando RivasExperimental Research Unit from the Faculty of Medicine, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
Diego Aguilar-RamirezClinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Louisa Gnatiuc-FriedrichsClinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
William G HerringtonClinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Michael HillClinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Tianshu LiuClinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Alejandra VergaraClinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Rachel WadeClinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Rory CollinsClinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Richard PetoClinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Jaime BerumenExperimental Research Unit from the Faculty of Medicine, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
Jesus Alegre-DíazExperimental Research Unit from the Faculty of Medicine, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
Jonathan R EmbersonClinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Roberto Tapia-ConyerFaculty of Medicine, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_UU_00017/2
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Observational epidemiological studies in Mexico have shown high mortality risks associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, it is unclear whether these relationships are wholly causal. We aimed to assess the association of genetically-predicted T2D liability with risk of death in Mexico. Methods: Between 1998 and 2004, 150,000 men and women were recruited from Mexico City and followed-up until September 2022 for cause-specific mortality. Mendelian randomisation analyses, using a genetic risk score (GRS) comprising 1055 established T2D-associated risk variants, estimated associations with risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality at ages 35-74. Findings: Among 121,433 included participants with a mean (standard deviation) age of 51 (11), 68% (n = 82,249) were women and 18% (n = 21,371) had T2D. The GRS explained 6.3% of T2D liability and was not associated with major potential confounders of the T2D-mortality relationship. During a median (interquartile range) of 20.2 (19.4-21.4) years' follow-up, 12,293 participants died. Genetically-predicted T2D liability was associated with a death rate ratio (RR) of 1.29 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23-1.36) per trebling in genetically-predicted odds of T2D. There were particularly strong associations with death from renal disease (n = 1696; RR 2.29 [95% CI 1.99-2.64]) and acute diabetic crises (n = 509; RR 2.27 [1.75-2.93]) and weaker, but still strong, associations with death from vascular disease (n = 3226; RR 1.31 [1.19-1.46]) and infection (n = 2437; RR 1.21 [1.07-1.36]). Genetically-predicted T2D liability was not clearly associated with death from cancer (n = 2016; RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.88-1.14]) or cirrhosis (n = 895; RR 0.90 [0.74-1.10]). Interpretation: T2D is causally associated with death from vascular, renal and infectious diseases. Its prevention and effective management could substantially reduce premature deaths in Mexico, where T2D is common. Funding: Wellcome Trust, the Mexican Health Ministry, the National Council for Science and Technology (CONACyT) for Mexico, Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, Kidney Research UK, UK Medical Research Council, AstraZeneca, Regeneron.

Indexed as

Mendelian randomisationMexicoMortalityType 2 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID40242322
PMCPMC12001093

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.