Social Fragility: Impact of Early Fertility and Domestic Violence in Colombia During the Pandemic.

Social fragility, defined as the inability of a society to manage risks and resolve conflicts without violence or external aid, is closely linked to early fertility and domestic violence, particularly among vulnerable populations. These challenges were exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which exposed regional disparities across Colombia, particularly in areas with weak social infrastructure and high dependence on public policies. This study integrates data from all Colombian departments on annual births, deaths by cause, domestic violence by perpetrator, and other demographic factors to construct key indicators of early fertility and structural inequalities. To measure fragility, we developed the Early Fertility Fragility Index (EFFI) and refined it using a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) to identify the most critical predictors of early fertility risk. The findings reveal marked regional disparities, with departments exhibiting high Indigenous and migrant populations, high domestic violence rates, and weak social protection systems experiencing the greatest fragility and the most pronounced increases in early fertility. However, these results reflect correlational relationships rather than causal effects. Further research using longitudinal or experimental designs is needed to establish causality.. In contrast, urbanized regions with stronger social and economic infrastructures showed greater resilience. These results highlight how structural inequalities intensify the effects of crises on vulnerable populations. The refined EFFI model provides a robust framework for assessing regional fragility and guiding evidence-based policy interventions. Addressing these disparities requires regionally tailored strategies that prioritize investment in social infrastructure, reproductive health services, and protective policies to mitigate the long-term consequences of early fertility and social fragility in Colombia.