ArticleFrontiers in veterinary science2025
Estimating the risk of zoonotic transmission of swine influenza A variant during agricultural fairs in the United States: a mathematical modeling.
Article in Frontiers in veterinary science, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Evaluating preventive measures for the zoonotic transmission of swine influenza A variant at agricultural fairs in the United States: a mathematical modeling study.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2025Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
Introduction: Agricultural fairs offer a unique interface between humans and swine. We investigate the transmissibility of influenza A variant from pigs to humans using epidemiological data from a 2011 zoonotic outbreak of an influenza H3N2 variant during an agricultural county fair in Pennsylvania. Methods: We developed a mathematical model for the transmission of a swine influenza pathogen among pigs and humans at an agricultural fair. We fitted our model to the outbreak data to estimate zoonotic transmissibility. We considered nine data-driven scenarios of swine-to-swine basic reproductive number (R Results: We estimated the probability of swine-to-human H3N2v transmission per minute of swine contact for which our model best fitted the data. The probability of transmission of H3N2v per minute of contact with swine among club members was estimated to vary from 0.029 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.028-0.030), when R Discussion: These results show that the transmission risk may vary substantially between club members and attendees and with the underlying disease transmission among pigs. Although fair attendees may have a small transmissibility risk, annual fair attendees represent a large population likely to experience zoonotic events and facilitate the emergence of a potential pandemic influenza variant.
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