ArticleBMC medicine2025
Combining genetic and non-genetic factors to predict the risk of pancreatic cancer in patients with new-onset diabetes mellitus.
Article in BMC medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Performance of risk prediction models for pancreatic cancer in patients with new-onset diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in oncology · 2026Pooled it
- Polygenic risk score-guided personalized osteoporosis screening: a population-based study.BMC medicine · 2026Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundRecent research suggests that new-onset diabetes mellitus (NODM) often results from pancreatic cancer (PC) rather than causing it. Determining if NODM is type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) or PC-related NODM (NODM-PC) aids in the early diagnosis of PC. We developed a NODM-PC risk prediction model to stratify PC risk in patients with NODM.
methodsThis study utilized data from the UK Biobank, including 238 NODM-PC cases and 14,825 cancer-free T2DM controls. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for PC and T2DM were constructed using previously reported single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) separately, while the NODM-PC PRS was developed by combining SNPs from both. Non-genetic factors were selected as candidate predictors based on prior NODM-PC prediction models. We developed three Cox models to estimate the risk of PC diagnosis within 3 years in the NODM population and evaluated them by internal-external cross-validation.
resultsElevated NODM-PC PRS and PC PRS scores positively correlated with NODM-PC risk, while T2DM PRS showed an inverse correlation. The NODM-PC PRS achieved the highest AUC at 0.719. Three Cox models were developed: Model 1 included age at T2DM diagnosis, smoking status, HbA1c, PC PRS, and T2DM PRS; Model 2 replaced PC and T2DM PRS with NODM-PC PRS; Model 3 included only non-genetic factors. Model 2 had the highest discrimination (Harrell's C-index 0.823 (95% CI: 0.806-0.840)), demonstrated the best clinical utility with good calibration, and showed significant classification improvement (continuous net reclassification index: 26.89% and 31.93% for cases, 28.51% and 30.90% for controls, compared to Models 1 and 3). The positive predictive value for the top 1% predicted risk in Model 2 was 13.25%.
conclusionsThis NODM-PC PRS enhances NODM-PC risk prediction, efficiently identifies individuals at high risk for PC screening, and improves PC screening efficiency at the population level among NODM individuals.
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