Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40229322›Full record

ArticleNPJ vaccines2025

A systems biology approach to define SARS-CoV-2 correlates of protection.

Caolann Brady, Tom Tipton, Oliver Carnell, Stephanie Longet, Karen Gooch, Yper Hall, Javier Salguero, Adriana Tomic, Miles Carroll

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ vaccines, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Machine Learning in Nonhuman Primate Models of Infectious Diseases: Current Applications and Future Perspectives.Journal of the American Association for Laboratory Animal Science : JAALAS · 2026
    Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Caolann BradyCentre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom. caolann.brady@well.ox.ac.uk.
Tom TiptonCentre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Oliver CarnellUK Health Security Agency; Porton Down, Salisbury, United Kingdom.
Stephanie LongetCentre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Karen GoochUK Health Security Agency; Porton Down, Salisbury, United Kingdom.
Yper HallUK Health Security Agency; Porton Down, Salisbury, United Kingdom.
Javier SalgueroUK Health Security Agency; Porton Down, Salisbury, United Kingdom.
Adriana Tomic *National Emerging Infectious Diseases Laboratories, Boston, MA, USA.
Miles Carroll *Centre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom. miles.carroll@ndm.ox.ac.uk.

Funding

Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations H5R01920
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Correlates of protection (CoPs) for SARS-CoV-2 have yet to be sufficiently defined. This study uses the machine learning platform, SIMON, to accurately predict the immunological parameters that reduced clinical pathology or viral load following SARS-CoV-2 challenge in a cohort of 90 non-human primates. We found that anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody and neutralising antibody titres were the best predictors of clinical protection and low viral load in the lung. Since antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike showed the greatest association with clinical protection and reduced viral load, we next used SIMON to investigate the immunological features that predict high antibody titres. It was found that a pre-immunisation response to seasonal beta-HCoVs and a high frequency of peripheral intermediate and non-classical monocytes predicted low SARS-CoV-2 spike IgG titres. In contrast, an elevated T cell response as measured by IFNγ ELISpot predicted high IgG titres. Additional predictors of clinical protection and low SARS-CoV-2 burden included a high abundance of peripheral T cells. In contrast, increased numbers of intermediate monocytes predicted clinical pathology and high viral burden in the throat. We also conclude that an immunisation strategy that minimises pathology post-challenge did not necessarily mediate viral control. This would be an important finding to take forward into the development of future vaccines aimed at limiting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. These results contribute to SARS-CoV-2 CoP definition and shed light on the factors influencing the success of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.

Identifiers

PMID40229322
PMCPMC11997207

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.