Predicting Emotional Distress, Based on Acquisition, Extinction, Avoidance, and Generalization Learning.

This prospective study aimed to investigate whether fear conditioning parameters measured at baseline could predict the development of emotional distress over a 6-month period among 655 first-year university students. Verbal and behavioral measures of acquisition, extinction, avoidance, and generalization were obtained through an online task at the start of the academic year. Emotional distress was evaluated 4 to 6 months later, with questionnaires assessing anxiety, stress, depression, and coping trajectories. Initial analyses explored the interplay of conditioning parameters at baseline, hypothesizing that the corresponding learning processes may mutually reinforce each other, contributing to distinct vulnerabilities for emotional distress. Although no distinct profiles based on conditioning processes were identified, the analyses did uncover correlations between increased acquisition and avoidance of conditioned threat stimuli and reduced extinction, avoidance of safe stimuli, and generalization. Subsequent main analyses related the processes and their interactions to the development of emotional distress. Findings suggest that acquiring fear toward conditioned safety and threat stimuli, as well as avoiding conditioned threat stimuli, may be predictive of higher levels of emotional distress. Analyses relating extinction and generalization to emotional distress revealed mostly nonsignificant findings, emphasizing the need for methodological scrutiny in identifying anxiety-related learning indices. This research contributes to understanding individual differences in the development of emotional distress and informs future investigations into learning processes and their implications for mental health.