ArticleCureus2025
Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Spread of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Chile Using a Percolation Model.
Article in Cureus, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Percolation describes the critical behaviour of spatial cells that progressively change their state until they compromise an entire given space. Once a threshold proportion is reached, a large continuous cell is formed that allows the space to be compromised in a continuous trajectory. This model has been used for the spatial progress of infectious disease epidemics. We propose a logistic model of space-time progression that allows an estimation of the time at which the percolation threshold is reached. In this study, we analysed the space-time progression of the COVID-19 epidemic through Chile. We first describe the process, apply the logistic model, and simulate the process on a long grid of square cells that imitates the Chilean situation. We found that, in practice, the percolation occurred when 81.63% of the communes were infected. The logistic model had an excellent fit (R
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