Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40221430›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Evolutionarily distinct lineages of a migratory bird of prey show divergent responses to climate change.

Joan Ferrer Obiol, Anastasios Bounas, Mattia Brambilla, Gianluca Lombardo, Simona Secomandi, Josephine R Paris, Alessio Iannucci, James R Whiting, Giulio Formenti, Andrea Bonisoli-Alquati and 33 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

43 authors.

Joan Ferrer ObiolDipartimento di Scienze e Politiche Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy. joan.ferrer.obiol@gmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1184-5434
Anastasios BounasDepartment of Biological Applications and Technology, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, Greece.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6724-0151
Mattia BrambillaDipartimento di Scienze e Politiche Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7643-4652
Gianluca LombardoDipartimento di Biologia e Biotecnologie "Lazzaro Spallanzani", Università degli Studi di Pavia, Pavia, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3641-5331
Simona SecomandiDipartimento di Bioscienze, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8597-6034
Josephine R ParisDipartimento di Medicina clinica, Sanità pubblica, Scienze della Vita e dell'Ambiente, Università degli Studi dell'Aquila, Coppito, Italy.
Alessio IannucciDipartimento di Biologia, Università degli Studi di Firenze, Sesto Fiorentino, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7729-4412
James R WhitingDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8936-4991
Giulio FormentiThe Vertebrate Genome Laboratory, The Rockefeller University, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7554-5991
Andrea Bonisoli-AlquatiDepartment of Biological Sciences, California State Polytechnic University - Pomona, Pomona, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9255-7556
Gentile Francesco FicetolaDipartimento di Scienze e Politiche Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3414-5155
Andrea GalimbertiNational Biodiversity Future Centre (NBFC), Palermo, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3140-3024
Jennifer BalaccoThe Vertebrate Genome Laboratory, The Rockefeller University, New York, NY, USA.
Nyambayar BatbayarWildlife Science and Conservation Center of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9138-9626
Alexandr E BraginNGO Naurzum, Kostanay, Kazakhstan.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0007-9987-1170
Manuela CaprioliDipartimento di Scienze e Politiche Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy.
Inês CatryCentre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (CE3C) & CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5593-5001
Jacopo G CecereArea Avifauna Migratrice, Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, Ozzano dell'Emilia, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4925-2730
Batmunkh DavaasurenWildlife Science and Conservation Center of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8496-1508
Federico De PascalisArea Avifauna Migratrice, Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, Ozzano dell'Emilia, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1414-7770
Ron EfratDepartment of Evolutionary and Environmental Biology, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6129-0596
Kiraz Erciyas-YavuzOrnithological Research Center, Ondokuz Mayis University, Samsun, Turkey.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7085-2378
João GameiroCIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratorio Associado, Campus de Vairão, Universidade do Porto, Vairão, Portugal.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9871-9763
Gradimir GradevGreen Balkans - Stara Zagora NGO, Stara Zagora, Bulgaria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0006-2938-3932
Bettina HaaseThe Vertebrate Genome Laboratory, The Rockefeller University, New York, NY, USA.
Todd E KatznerU. S. Geological Survey, Boise, ID, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4503-8435
Jacquelyn MountcastleThe Vertebrate Genome Laboratory, The Rockefeller University, New York, NY, USA.
Kresimir MikulicIBIS program LTD, Zagreb, Croatia.
Michelangelo MorgantiNational Biodiversity Future Centre (NBFC), Palermo, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8047-0429
Liviu G PârâuInstitute of Pharmacy and Molecular Biotechnology, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8307-6136
Airam RodríguezDepartamento de Ecología Evolutiva, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN), CSIC, Madrid, Spain.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7882-135X
Maurizio SaràDipartimento STEBICEF, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4274-422X
Elisavet-Aspasia ToliDepartment of Biological Applications and Technology, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, Greece.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7185-9750
Nikos TsiopelasHellenic Ornithological Society, Athens, Greece.
Claudio CiofiDipartimento di Biologia, Università degli Studi di Firenze, Sesto Fiorentino, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8537-8659
Luca GianfranceschiDipartimento di Bioscienze, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7644-5968
Erich D JarvisLaboratory of Neurogenetics of Language, The Rockefeller University, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8931-5049
Anna OlivieriDipartimento di Biologia e Biotecnologie "Lazzaro Spallanzani", Università degli Studi di Pavia, Pavia, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3941-8098
Konstantinos SotiropoulosDepartment of Biological Applications and Technology, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, Greece.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3622-7907
Michael WinkInstitute of Pharmacy and Molecular Biotechnology, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7875-4510
Emiliano TrucchiDipartimento di Scienze della Vita e dell'Ambiente, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy.
Antonio TorroniDipartimento di Biologia e Biotecnologie "Lazzaro Spallanzani", Università degli Studi di Pavia, Pavia, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4163-4478
Diego RuboliniDipartimento di Scienze e Politiche Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy. diego.rubolini@unimi.it.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2703-5783

Funding

EC | LIFE programme (LIFE) LIFE17 NAT/IT/000586
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Accurately predicting species' responses to anthropogenic climate change is hampered by limited knowledge of their spatiotemporal ecological and evolutionary dynamics. We combine landscape genomics, demographic reconstructions, and species distribution models to assess the eco-evolutionary responses to past climate fluctuations and to future climate of an Afro-Palaearctic migratory raptor, the lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni). We uncover two evolutionarily and ecologically distinct lineages (European and Asian), whose demographic history, evolutionary divergence, and historical distribution range were profoundly shaped by past climatic fluctuations. Using future climate projections, we find that the Asian lineage is at higher risk of range contraction, increased migration distance, climate maladaptation, and consequently greater extinction risk than the European lineage. Our results emphasise the importance of providing historical context as a baseline for understanding species' responses to contemporary climate change, and illustrate how incorporating intraspecific genetic variation improves the ecological realism of climate change vulnerability assessments.

Indexed as

Animal MigrationBiological EvolutionClimate ChangeFalconiformesAnimalsEuropeGenetic VariationPhylogeny

Identifiers

PMID40221430
PMCPMC11993763

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.