ArticleBMJ mental health2025
Predicting the incidence of depression in adolescence using a sociodemographic risk score: prospective follow-up of the IDEA-RiSCo study.
Article in BMJ mental health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Prediction models for longitudinal trajectories of depression and anxiety: a systematic review.Journal of affective disorders · 2026Pooled it
- Predicting 7-year-olds mental health in the perinatal period: Development and internal validation of a multivariable model using the prospective ALSPAC cohort.JCPP advances · 2026Article
- Combining neurobiological markers and a sociodemographic risk score to predict adolescent depression - An IDEA RiSCo prospective cohort study.Molecular psychiatry · 2026Article
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13 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundAdolescence constitutes a critical window for preventing depression, but efforts have mostly targeted single risk factors. The Identifying Depression Early in Adolescence Risk Score (IDEA-RS) integrates easily obtainable sociodemographic variables and has been able to predict future depression across diverse populations. However, its performance within a prospective cohort remains untested.
objectiveTo evaluate the performance of the IDEA-RS in a prospective sample of adolescents participating in the IDEA Risk Stratified Cohort.
methodsUsing the IDEA-RS, we screened 7720 adolescents aged 14-16 years in 101 public schools in Porto Alegre, Brazil, and recruited 50 low-risk (LR) and 50 high-risk (HR) participants without depression. The incidence of depressive disorders over 3 years was assessed using the Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for School-Age Children. Statistical analysis involved Poisson regression with robust variance to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for depression onset.
findingsIn the HR group, 14/45 developed depression, in comparison to 5/43 in the LR group. Poisson regression analysis confirmed a higher probability of developing depression in the HR group compared with the LR group (IRR of 2.68, 95% CI 1.05 to 6.79, p=0.04).
conclusionIn a prospective cohort of Brazilian adolescents, the IDEA-RS effectively distinguished between those at HR and LR for developing depression. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: These results support the usefulness of an easy-to-administer sociodemographic composite risk score for stratifying the probability of developing depression among adolescents, a promising tool to be used in a variety of global contexts, including resource-limited settings.
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