Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40217004›Full record

ArticleNature human behaviour2025

Sources of organizational variability in fatal police shootings in the USA.

Roland Neil, John M MacDonald, Anthony A Braga

Abstract read
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature human behaviour, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Roland NeilDepartment of Economics, Statistics and Sociology, RAND, Santa Monica, CA, USA. rneil@rand.org.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9582-0746
John M MacDonaldDepartment of Criminology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Anthony A BragaDepartment of Criminology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The rate of fatal shootings by officers is highly variable across American police agencies, yet the reasons for this variability remain unclear. This study uses Bayesian multilevel models to partition the variation in fatal police shooting rates across 2,727 police agencies between 2015 and 2020 into 3 sources of variability: randomness, differences in social context, and outlier agencies that have exceptionally higher or lower rates than is predicted by observed factors. The results indicate that variation in police shooting rates across agencies is far from random and is primarily associated with differences in social contexts, especially differences in crime rates, 911 call rates, officers per capita and the prevalence of guns. However, even after accounting for extensive differences in contexts, several police agencies consistently have lower or higher police shooting rates than predicted.

Indexed as

FirearmsGun ViolenceHomicidePoliceWounds, GunshotBayes TheoremCrimeHumansLaw EnforcementUnited States

Identifiers

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.