ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2025
A refractory density approach to a multi-scale SEIRS epidemic model.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
We propose a novel multi-scale modeling framework for infectious disease spreading, borrowing ideas and modeling tools from the so-called Refractory Density (RD) approach. We introduce a microscopic model that describes the probability of infection for a single individual and the evolution of the disease within their body. From the individual-level description, we then present the corresponding population-level model of epidemic spreading on the mesoscopic and macroscopic scale. We conclude with numerical illustrations, taking into account either a white Gaussian noise or an escape noise to showcase the potential of our approach in producing both transient and asymptotic complex dynamics as well as finite-size fluctuations consistently across multiple scales. A comparison with the epidemiology of coronaviruses is also given to corroborate the qualitative relevance of our new approach.
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