Risk factors analysis and nomograph model construction of unplanned readmission for ischemic stroke within 31 days in Wenzhou.

Objective: To investigate independent risk factors for unplanned readmission of ischemic stroke patients within 31 days in Wenzhou, and establish a nomogram model for risk prediction. Methods: A total of 3,035 patients with ischemic stroke were randomly grouped (in an 8:2 ratio) into 2,428 training set and 607validation set. Independent sample Results: Six hundred and sixty nine patients (22.04%) had unplanned readmission. Atrial fibrillation, smoking, education of junior high school and below, length of stay >16 days, Hcy, and UA were independent risk factors for 31-day unplanned readmission in patients with ischemic stroke. The training set [AUC = 0.883 (95% CI = 0.867-0.899)] and validation set [AUC = 0.817 (95% CI = 0.777-0.858)], and the calibration curve closely resembled the ideal curve, demonstrating good agreement between the predicted and actual values, it shows that the prediction model has a good degree of differentiation and calibration. At the same time, the decision curve shows that the model has a high clinical net benefit rate. Conclusion: The nomograph model established in this study to predict the risk of unplanned readmission of ischemic stroke patients within 31 days has good prediction ability.