Prediction of retinopathy of prematurity development and treatment need with machine learning models.

backgroundTo evaluate the effectiveness of machine learning (ML) models in predicting the occurrence of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) and treatment need.

methodsFour ML models were created using 49 parameters known within the first 24 h post-birth and obtained during the initial screening examination, encompassing demographic, maternal, clinical, and neonatal intensive care unit-related data. The models' performances were assessed using five machine learning (ML) classifier algorithms: logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Performance metrics were calculated, and the top ten parameters with the highest predictive value were identified.

resultsIn the cohort of 355 preterm infants, Model I, predicting ROP development using birth data, achieved a balanced accuracy of 80%, with gestational age (GA), birth weight (BW) and mean corpuscular volume (MCV) as the top predictive parameters. Model II, predicting treatment-requiring ROP using birth data, exhibited a balanced accuracy of 81%. Key predictive parameters included low GA, BW, 1-minute and 5-minute APGAR scores, and low erythrocyte counts. For Model III, predicting ROP using the first screening examination data, and Model IV, predicting treatment-requiring ROP using the same data, the accuracy values were 80% and 66%, respectively, with BW, daily weight gain, total O2 support duration, and platelet/lymphocyte ratio emerged as the most significant predictive parameters in both models.

conclusionThis study demonstrates the potential of ML models to predict ROP development and treatment need. Incorporating clinical and intensive care-related parameters can enhance ROP screening and clinical decision-making.