Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40208504›Full record

ArticleBreast cancer (Tokyo, Japan)2025

Risk factors for early recurrence in patients with hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer: a retrospective cohort study in Japan (WJOG15721B).

Rurina Watanuki, Hitomi Sakai, Yuri Takehara, Atsushi Yoshida, Naoki Hayashi, Yukinori Ozaki, Akemi Kataoka, Natsue Uehiro, Hidenori Kamio, Mai Onishi and 6 more

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Breast cancer (Tokyo, Japan), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Rurina WatanukiDepartment of Breast Surgery, National Cancer Center Hospital East, 6-5-1 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba, 277-8577, Japan.
Hitomi SakaiAdvanced Cancer Translational Research Institute, Showa Medical University, 1-5-8 Hatanodai, Shinagawa-ku,, Tokyo, 142-8555, Japan. sakai-h@med.showa-u.ac.jp.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8396-9121
Yuri TakeharaDepartment of Breast Surgical Oncology, St. Luke's International Hospital, 9-1 Akashicho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, 104-8560, Japan.
Atsushi YoshidaDepartment of Breast Surgical Oncology, St. Luke's International Hospital, 9-1 Akashicho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, 104-8560, Japan.
Naoki HayashiDepartment of Breast Surgical Oncology, St. Luke's International Hospital, 9-1 Akashicho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, 104-8560, Japan.
Yukinori OzakiBreast Oncology Center, Cancer Institute Hospital of the Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research, 3-8-31 Ariake, Koto-ku, Tokyo, 135-8550, Japan.
Akemi KataokaBreast Oncology Center, Cancer Institute Hospital of the Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research, 3-8-31 Ariake, Koto-ku, Tokyo, 135-8550, Japan.
Natsue UehiroBreast Oncology Center, Cancer Institute Hospital of the Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research, 3-8-31 Ariake, Koto-ku, Tokyo, 135-8550, Japan.
Hidenori KamioDepartment of Breast Surgery, Tokyo Metropolitan Cancer and Infectious Diseases Center Komagome Hospital, 3-18-22 Honkomagome, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8677, Japan.
Mai OnishiDepartment of Breast Surgery, Tokyo Metropolitan Cancer and Infectious Diseases Center Komagome Hospital, 3-18-22 Honkomagome, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8677, Japan.
Atsushi FushimiDepartment of Surgery, The Jikei University School of Medicine, 3-19-18 Nishi-Shinbashi, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 105-8471, Japan.
Takashi IkenoClinical Research Support Office, National Cancer Center Hospital East, 6-5-1 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba, 277-8577, Japan.
Masashi WakabayashiBiostatistics Division, Center for Research Administration and Support, National Cancer Center, 6-5-1 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba, 277-8577, Japan.
Mayumi IidaJapan Drug Development and Medical Affairs, Eli Lilly Japan, 5-1-28 Isogamidori, Chuo-ku, Kobe-shi, Hyogo, 651-0086, Japan.
Tsutomu KawaguchiJapan Drug Development and Medical Affairs, Eli Lilly Japan, 5-1-28 Isogamidori, Chuo-ku, Kobe-shi, Hyogo, 651-0086, Japan.
Toshimi TakanoBreast Oncology Center, Cancer Institute Hospital of the Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research, 3-8-31 Ariake, Koto-ku, Tokyo, 135-8550, Japan.

Funding

Eli Lilly Japan NE
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPatients with early recurrence of hormone receptor (HR)-positive, HER2-negative (HR+/HER2-) breast cancer have a poor prognosis. We aimed to identify clinical and pathological risk factors for recurrence within three years after surgery of HR+/HER2- breast cancer.

methodsWe retrospectively reviewed clinical data of patients with stage II-III HR+/HER2- breast cancer who received adjuvant endocrine therapy from January 1, 2012 to January 1, 2017 at five institutions. Using univariable and multivariable analyses, we determined risk factors for invasive disease-free survival (IDFS). A nomogram was generated using variables from the multivariable analysis to predict 3-year IDFS rate.

resultsA total of 2732 patients were analyzed, with a median follow-up of 7.1 years. The 3-year IDFS rate was 92.1%. Multivariable analysis for IDFS revealed significant risk factors: age (40-69 vs. 20-39 years: HR 0.69, p = 0.011), nuclear grade (Grade 2 vs. Grade 1: HR 1.66, p < 0.001; Grade 3 vs. Grade 1: HR 1.64, p < 0.001), vascular invasion (Yes vs. No: HR 1.36, p = 0.027), pathological invasive tumor size (2-5 cm vs. < 2 cm: HR 1.75, p < 0.001; ≥ 5 cm vs. < 2 cm: HR 2.07, p < 0.001), number of positive lymph nodes (≥ 4 vs.0: HR 1.70, p < 0.001), and neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) (Yes vs. No: HR 2.41, p < 0.001). The nomogram's concordance index was 0.68.

conclusionYounger age, nuclear grade, vascular invasion, tumor size and number of lymph node metastases were identified as independent risk factors for early recurrence. Patients whose physicians chose NAC had worse survival than those who did not.

Indexed as

Breast NeoplasmsNeoplasm Recurrence, LocalAdultAgedChemotherapy, AdjuvantDisease-Free SurvivalErb-b2 Receptor Tyrosine KinasesFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansJapanMiddle AgedNeoplasm StagingNomogramsPrognosisReceptors, EstrogenERBB2 protein, humanErb-b2 Receptor Tyrosine KinasesReceptors, EstrogenReceptors, ProgesteroneEarly recurrenceHR-positive HER2-negative breast cancerNomogramRisk factor

Identifiers

PMID40208504
PMCPMC12174269

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.