ArticleFrontiers in public health2025
Trends and forecast of drug-resistant tuberculosis: a global perspective from the GBD study 2021.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Occurrence of drug resistance, associated risk factors, and expression of cytokine IL-33 in human TB patients.Annals of medicine and surgery (2012) · 2026Article
- Mapping the genomic frontier: a comprehensive bibliometric analysis and thematic evolution of whole-genome sequencing for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (1994-2025).World journal of microbiology & biotechnology · 2026Article
- Drug-resistant tuberculosis in Lishui, China: first-line drug resistance patterns, trends, and risk factors from a 10-year retrospective study (2015-2024).Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis, 1990-2050: a systematic comparative analysis based on retrospective cross-sectional of GBD 2021 and WHO surveillance systems.International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2026Article
- Global burden of MDR-TB and XDR-TB: trends, inequities, and future implications for public health planning.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Global trajectory and spatiotemporal epidemiological landscape of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis of spanning 46 years (1990-2035): implications for achieving global end TB goals.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- What are the Real-Life Dilemmas and Facilitators of Medication Adherence of Patients with Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis: A Qualitative Exploration of Patient Perspectives.Infection and drug resistance · 2025Article
- The global burden of tuberculosis attributable to diet high in processed meat from 1990 to 2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Frontiers in nutrition · 2025Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by Aims: This study aimed to quantify the changes in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of two types of DRTB from 1991 to 2021 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, and to examine the epidemiological differences across various regions and countries and applied the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the epidemiological trends of MDRTB and EDRTB from 2022 to 2030. Methods: Data were extracted from the GBD database from 1991 to 2021. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) in DRTB ASIR by regions, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. ARIMA model was applied to predict ASIR between 2022 and 2030. Results: From 1991 to 2021, the global composition of DRTB shifted, with EDRTB increasing in developed regions and MDRTB remaining dominant in regions like sub-Saharan Africa. The highest ASIRs for MDRTB in 2021 were seen in Somalia, while the highest for EDRTB were in Moldova. Significant regional variations were observed, with East Asia showing a decrease in MDRTB and Oceania experiencing large increases in both MDRTB and EDRTB. Additionally, country-specific trends varied widely, with Slovenia showing the greatest decrease in MDRTB and Papua New Guinea the largest increase in EDRTB. Conclusion: This study highlights the ongoing dominance of MDRTB in low SDI regions and the expected decline of EDRTB in high SDI regions due to improved treatments and diagnostics. Global predictions suggest a reduction in DRTB burden by 2030, with a focus on early diagnosis and treatment optimization.
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