Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40201066›Full record

ArticleNPJ climate and atmospheric science2025

Global and regional drivers for exceptional climate extremes in 2023-2024: beyond the new normal.

Shoshiro Minobe, Erik Behrens, Kirsten L Findell, Norman G Loeb, Benoit Meyssignac, Rowan Sutton

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ climate and atmospheric science, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Shoshiro MinobeFaculty of Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.ORCID 0000-0002-9487-9006
Erik BehrensThe National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand.ORCID 0000-0002-9713-7227
Kirsten L FindellGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ USA.ORCID 0000-0002-1207-1637
Norman G LoebNASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA USA.
Benoit MeyssignacUniversité de Toulouse, LEGOS (CNES/CNRS/IRD/UT3), Toulouse, France.
Rowan SuttonUniversity of Reading and National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8345-8583

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Climate records have been broken with alarming regularity in recent years, but the events of 2023-2024 were exceptional even when accounting for recent climatic trends. Here we quantify these events across multiple variables and show how excess energy accumulation in the Earth system drove the exceptional conditions. Key factors were the positive decadal trend in Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI), persistent La Niña conditions beginning in 2020, and the switch to El Niño in 2023. Between 2022 and 2023, the heating from EEI was over 75% larger than during the onset of similar recent El Niño events. We show further how regional processes shaped distinct patterns of record-breaking sea surface temperatures in individual ocean basins. If the recent trend in EEI is maintained, we argue that natural fluctuations such as ENSO cycles will increasingly lead to amplified, record-breaking impacts, with 2023-2024 serving as a glimpse of future climate extremes.

Indexed as

Atmospheric scienceClimate changeOcean sciences

Identifiers

PMID40201066
PMCPMC11972963

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.