ArticleCommunications biology2025
Modelling the effects of diurnal temperature variation on malaria infection dynamics in mosquitoes.
Article in Communications biology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Local trait responses and aquatic microclimates increase projected habitat suitability for field-collectedbioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Mosquito infection experiments that characterise how sporogony changes with temperature are increasingly being used to parameterise malaria transmission models. In these experiments, mosquitoes are exposed to a range of temperatures, with each group experiencing a single temperature. Diurnal temperature variation can, however, affect the sporogonic cycle of Plasmodium parasites. Mosquito dissection data is not available for all temperature profiles, so we investigate whether mathematical models of mosquito infection parameterised with constant temperature thermal performance curves can predict the effects of diurnal temperature variation. We use this model to predict two key parameters governing disease transmission: the human-to-mosquito transmission probability and extrinsic incubation period - and, embed this model into a malaria transmission model to simulate sporozoite prevalence with and without the effects of diurnal and seasonal temperature variation for a single site in Burkina Faso. Simulations incorporating diurnal temperature variation better predict changes in sporogony in laboratory mosquitoes, indicating that constant temperature experiments can be used to predict the effects of fluctuating temperatures. Including the effects of diurnal temperature variation, however, did not substantially improve the predictive ability of the transmission model to predict changes in sporozoite prevalence in wild mosquitoes, indicating further research is needed in more settings.
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