ArticleArquivos de gastroenterologia2025
PERFORMANCE OF SIX PREDICTIVE MODELS OF DEATH OF PATIENTS HOSPITALIZED FOR DECOMPENSATED CIRRHOSIS: A MULTICENTER STUDY.
Article in Arquivos de gastroenterologia, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Preoperative NLR and INR, and intraoperative cold ischemia time as predictors of short-term mortality risk in paediatric liver transplantation: a LASSO-cox model study.Annals of medicine · 2026Article
- Creatinine assay interferences compromises MELD accuracy and may bias liver allocation.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Does Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure Still Matter After Liver Transplantation? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of One-Year Survival.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Beyond the Tipping Point: Advances in the Diagnosis and Management of Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure and End-Stage Liver Disease.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Peak-MELD scores, a disease trajectory associated with reduced access to liver transplantation.Frontiers in medicine · 2026Article
- Cefadroxil-associated cholestatic liver injury presenting as vanishing bile duct syndrome: a case report.Frontiers in medicine · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThe natural history of cirrhosis is characterized by an asymptomatic phase (compensated cirrhosis) followed by a rapidly progressive phase (decompensated cirrhosis). The ability to predict the survival of patients with cirrhosis is crucial for decision-making, some as complex as the indication for a liver transplant. Several models have been developed and validated.
objectiveTo analyze and compare the performance of models in predicting 90-day mortality among patients hospitalized with decompensated cirrhosis.
methodsA sample of 481 hospitalized patients, with a mean age of 59.04 years 73% male, diagnosed with decompensated cirrhosis and a mean Child-Pugh score of 9. The prognostic models were calculated based on tests performed on admission: MELD-Na, MELD-Plus, MELD 3.0, ReMELD, Refit MELD, and Refit MELD-Na. The accuracy of the models was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, and their respective 95% confidence intervals. Comparisons between the areas were conducted using the DeLong test. A comparison was conducted among all scores, with a primary focus on MELD 3.0 and MELD-Plus. These specific scores were the focal points of interest.
resultsThe scores presented AUROC curve values of 0.703-0.758, indicating a moderate capacity to discriminate between survivors and deceased patients during the considered period. The comparison between the models did not unequivocally establish the superiority of one model over the other.
conclusionThe scores have a limited predictive ability for death within 90 days in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Our study is unable to establish the prognostic superiority of a specific scoring system.
background• This retrospective, multicenter study evaluated the accuracy of six predictive models of death within 90 days in 461 patients hospitalized for decompensated cirrhosis.
background• The scores presented an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.703-0.758, indicating a good ability to discriminate between survivors and deceased patients during the considered period.
background• The comparison between the models did not unequivocally establish the superiority of one model over the other.
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