ArticleBMC public health2025
Cost-effectiveness of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate prophylaxis for perinatal hepatitis B virus prevention in Ethiopia: a decision analytical modeling.
Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundPerinatal transmission of hepatitis B virus (HBV) remains a significant public health issue. To complement vaccination, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) prophylaxis is recommended for HBV-infected pregnant women. We aimed to identify a cost-effective strategy for using TDF to prevent perinatal HBV transmission in Ethiopia.
methodsA decision tree combined with a Markov model was used to determine the cost-effectiveness of different strategies for preventing perinatal transmission of HBV in a cohort of 10,000 hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive pregnant women. The existing vaccination strategy (Strategy 1) was compared with three alternative strategies that added TDF prophylaxis to the existing strategy. Strategy 2 (TDF prophylaxis following HBV viral load testing), Strategy 3 (TDF prophylaxis following hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg) testing), and Strategy 4 (TDF prophylaxis for all HBsAg-positive). Costs were measured from the healthcare sector perspective. Effects were measured as HBV infection averted and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Model input parameters were obtained from the literature review and local data. Cost-effectiveness was determined by the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), with thresholds set at 0.34, 1, and 3 times the GDP per capita of Ethiopia. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to test the robustness of the results.
resultsAmong the alternatives, Strategy 4 is the most cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of 220.3 US$ per DALY averted. Strategy 4 would prevent 267 perinatal HBV infections and averted 1048 DALYs per 10,000 HBsAg-positive pregnant women. These results were robust to a range of parameters and showed a 97% probability of being cost-effective at one times the GDP per capita of Ethiopia. The next optimal strategy is Strategy 2, compared with the next best alternative, with an ICER of 1175.52 US$ per DALY averted. Strategy 3 was dominated by the available strategies.
conclusionProviding TDF prophylaxis for all HBsAg-positive pregnant women starting at 28 weeks of pregnancy has the potential to be a cost-effective strategy in Ethiopia. Introduction of TDF prophylaxis for all HBsAg-positive pregnant women is highly recommended, along with efforts to improve vaccination coverage.
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