Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40195955›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the ... Winter Simulation Conference. Winter Simulation Conference2023

Trajectory-oriented optimization of stochastic epidemiological models.

Arindam Fadikar, Mickaël Binois, Nicholson Collier, Abby Stevens, Kok Ben Toh, Jonathan Ozik

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the ... Winter Simulation Conference. Winter Simulation Conference, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. DISTRIBUTED MODEL EXPLORATION WITH EMEWS.Proceedings of the ... Winter Simulation Conference. Winter Simulation Conference · 2024
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Arindam FadikarDecision and Infrastructure Sciences, Argonne National Laboratory.
Mickaël BinoisAcumes project-team, Inria centre at Université Côte d'Azur.
Nicholson CollierDecision and Infrastructure Sciences, Argonne National Laboratory.
Abby StevensDecision and Infrastructure Sciences, Argonne National Laboratory.
Kok Ben TohDepartment of Preventive Medicine, Institute of Global Health, Northwestern University.
Jonathan OzikDecision and Infrastructure Sciences, Argonne National Laboratory.

Funding

Next-Generation Phylodynamics-targeted Partner Service Models for Combined HIV PreventionR01AI136056 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO · PI BENBOW, NANETTE DIOR, D'AQUILA, RICHARD · 2018 to 2022
$4.0M
Leveraging data synthesis to identify optimal and robust strategies for HIV elimination among substance-using MSMR01DA055502 · NIDA · NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY AT CHICAGO · PI Patrick Francis Janulis · 2022 to 2026
$3.2M
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI136056NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA055502
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Epidemiological models must be calibrated to ground truth for downstream tasks such as producing forward projections or running what-if scenarios. The meaning of calibration changes in case of a stochastic model since output from such a model is generally described via an ensemble or a distribution. Each member of the ensemble is usually mapped to a random number seed (explicitly or implicitly). With the goal of finding not only the input parameter settings but also the random seeds that are consistent with the ground truth, we propose a class of Gaussian process (GP) surrogates along with an optimization strategy based on Thompson sampling. This

Identifiers

PMID40195955
PMCPMC11974397

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.