Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40193197›Full record

ArticleHLA2025

Comparison Between Antigen and Allelic HLA Mismatches, and the Risk of Acute Rejection in Kidney Transplant Recipients.

Ryan Gately, Anne Taverniti, Narelle Watson, Armando Teixeira-Pinto, Esther Ooi, Rowena Lalji, Ross Francis, Lucy Sullivan, William Mulley, Kate Wyburn and 4 more

Abstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in HLA, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Ryan GatelyDepartment of Kidney and Transplant Services, Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-1951-9836
Anne TavernitiCentre for Kidney Research, Kids Research Institute, The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Narelle WatsonNew South Wales Transplantation and Immunogenetics Services, Australian Red Cross Lifeblood, Sydney, Australia.
Armando Teixeira-PintoCentre for Kidney Research, Kids Research Institute, The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Esther OoiMedical School, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
Rowena LaljiDepartment of Kidney and Transplant Services, Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Ross FrancisDepartment of Kidney and Transplant Services, Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Lucy SullivanSouth Australian Transplantation and Immunogenetics Service, Australian Red Cross LifeBlood, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
William MulleyDepartment of Nephrology, Monash Medical Centre, Melbourne, Australia.
Kate WyburnDepartment of Renal Medicine, Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Sydney, Australia.
Scott CampbellDepartment of Kidney and Transplant Services, Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Carmel HawleyDepartment of Kidney and Transplant Services, Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Germaine WongCentre for Kidney Research, Kids Research Institute, The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Wai H LimMedical School, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Deceased donor kidney allocation relies on HLA compatibility at the antigen level, as optimal matching reduces the risk of acute rejection. Whether HLA allele-level mismatches improve, the prediction of acute rejection after transplantation remains unclear. Using data from the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry (ANZDATA) from 2017 to 2020, HLA antigenic and allelic mismatches between recipients and deceased donors were calculated with imputation of two-field allelic equivalents undertaken where required. The discordance between antigen and allele mismatches was calculated, and oblique random survival forest models were used to predict acute rejection. Predictive performance of antigen (HLA-A, -B, -DRB1 and -DQB1), allele (HLA-A, -B, -DRB1 and -DQB1) and extended allele (HLA-A, -B, -C, -DRB1, -DQA1 and -DQB1) models was examined using concordance index and integrated Brier scores, with variable importance calculated using permutation-based methods. Among 2644 recipients followed for a median of 1.7 years, 521 recipients (20%) experienced acute rejection. Discordant numbers of antigenic and allelic mismatches occurred in 8%, 9%, 24% and 17% of HLA-A, -B, -DRB1 and -DQB1 loci, respectively. Predictive performances were similar across all models, with concordance indices of 0.62-0.63 and integrated Brier scores of 0.09. HLA-DRB1 and -DQB1 mismatches were the strongest predictors of acute rejection across models. In patients matched at the HLA-DRB1 or -DQB1 antigen, those with allelic mismatches had similar incidences of rejection compared to those without. Allelic-level assessment of HLA compatibility did not improve the prediction of acute rejection and may disadvantage certain recipients by reclassifying them into higher mismatch categories in allocation algorithms without providing clear clinical benefit.

Indexed as

AllelesGraft RejectionHLA AntigensKidney TransplantationAdultAustraliaFemaleHistocompatibility TestingHumansMaleMiddle AgedNew ZealandRegistriesTransplant RecipientsHLA Antigensacute rejectionallelic mismatchHLA antigenskidney transplantationpredictive modelsrandom survival forest

Identifiers

PMID40193197
PMCPMC11975158

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.