Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40190382›Full record

ArticleNpj complexity2025

Modeling the amplification of epidemic spread by individuals exposed to misinformation on social media.

Matthew R DeVerna, Francesco Pierri, Yong-Yeol Ahn, Santo Fortunato, Alessandro Flammini, Filippo Menczer

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Npj complexity, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Matthew R DeVernaLuddy School of Informatics, Computing, and Engineering, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN USA.
Francesco PierriDepartment of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy.
Yong-Yeol AhnLuddy School of Informatics, Computing, and Engineering, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN USA.
Santo FortunatoLuddy School of Informatics, Computing, and Engineering, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN USA.
Alessandro FlamminiLuddy School of Informatics, Computing, and Engineering, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN USA.
Filippo MenczerLuddy School of Informatics, Computing, and Engineering, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Understanding how misinformation affects the spread of disease is crucial for public health, especially given recent research indicating that misinformation can increase vaccine hesitancy and discourage vaccine uptake. However, it is difficult to investigate the interaction between misinformation and epidemic outcomes due to the dearth of data-informed holistic epidemic models. Here, we employ an epidemic model that incorporates a large, mobility-informed physical contact network as well as the distribution of misinformed individuals across counties derived from social media data. The model allows us to simulate various scenarios to understand how epidemic spreading can be affected by misinformation spreading through one particular social media platform. Using this model, we compare a worst-case scenario, in which individuals become misinformed after a single exposure to low-credibility content, to a best-case scenario where the population is highly resilient to misinformation. We estimate the additional portion of the U.S. population that would become infected over the course of the COVID-19 epidemic in the worst-case scenario. This work can provide policymakers with insights about the potential harms of exposure to online vaccine misinformation.

Indexed as

CommunicationEpidemiologyInterdisciplinary studies

Identifiers

PMID40190382
PMCPMC11964913

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.