Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40189694›Full record

ArticleNPJ digital medicine2025

A methodological systematic review of validation and performance of sepsis real-time prediction models.

Zichen Wang, Wen Wang, Che Sun, Jili Li, Shuangyi Xie, Jiayue Xu, Kang Zou, Yinghui Jin, Siyu Yan, Xuelian Liao and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ digital medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Zichen Wang *Department of Critical Care Medicine, Chinese Evidence-based Medicine Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China.
Wen Wang *Department of Critical Care Medicine, Chinese Evidence-based Medicine Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China. wangwen83@outlook.com.
Che SunDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Chinese Evidence-based Medicine Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China.
Jili LiDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Chinese Evidence-based Medicine Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China.
Shuangyi XieDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Chinese Evidence-based Medicine Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China.
Jiayue XuDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Chinese Evidence-based Medicine Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China.
Kang ZouDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Chinese Evidence-based Medicine Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China.
Yinghui JinCenter for Evidence-Based and Translational Medicine, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China.
Siyu YanCenter for Evidence-Based and Translational Medicine, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China.
Xuelian LiaoDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China.
Yan KangDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China.
Craig M CoopersmithEmory Critical Care Center and Department of Surgery, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Xin SunDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Chinese Evidence-based Medicine Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China. sunxin@wchscu.cn.

Funding

The Gut as a Target to Improve Outcomes in SepsisR35GM148217 · NIGMS · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI Craig M Coopersmith · 2023 to 2026
$2.2M
1·3·5 Project for Disciplines of Excellence, West China Hospital, Sichuan University ZYGD23004National Natural Science Foundation of China 72104155National Natural Science Foundation of China 72304198National Natural Science Foundation of China 82225049NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM148217NIH HHS GM148217Sichuan Provincial Central Government Guides Local Science and Technology Development Special Project 2022ZYD0127
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Sepsis real-time prediction models (SRPMs) provide timely alerts and may improve patient outcomes but face limited clinical adoption due to inconsistent validation methods and potential biases. Comprehensive evaluation, including external full-window validation with model- and outcome-level metrics, is crucial for real-world effectiveness, yet performance evidence remains scarce. This study systematically reviewed SRPM performance across validation methods, analyzing 91 studies from multiple databases. Only 54.9% applied full-window validation with both metric types. Performance decreased under external and full-window validation, with median AUROCs of 0.886 and 0.861 at 6- and 12-hours pre-onset, dropping to 0.783 in full-window external validation. Median Utility Scores declined from 0.381 in internal to -0.164 in external validation. Combining AUROC and Utility Score identified top-performing SRPMs in 18.7% of studies. Hand-crafted features significantly improved performance. Future research should focus on multi-center datasets, hand-crafted features, multi-metric full-window validation, and prospective trials to support clinical implementation.

Identifiers

PMID40189694
PMCPMC11973177

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.