ArticleEuro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin2025
Identifying hotspots and risk factors for tick-borne encephalitis virus emergence at its range margins to guide interventions, Great Britain.
Article in Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Mapping one health surveillance and networks for vector-borne disease prevention and control in Europe - A scoping review.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Review
- 'Reservoir dogs': The emerging zoonotic risk associated with European dog imports to the UK.The Veterinary record · 2026Review
- Targeted monitoring informed by mapping the ongoing spread of tick-borne encephalitis virus, the Netherlands.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026Article
- Metatranscriptomic Analysis Uncovers RNA Virus Diversity in Ticks From the China-Russia-North Korea Border Region.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
BackgroundTick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) is expanding its range in Europe, with increasing human cases reported. Since the first detection of TBEV in ticks in the United Kingdom in 2019, one possible, two probable and two confirmed autochthonous cases in humans have been reported.AimWe aimed to understand the environmental and ecological factors limiting TBEV foci at their range edge and predict suitable areas for TBEV establishment across Great Britain (GB) by modelling patterns of exposure to TBEV in deer.MethodsWe developed spatial risk models for TBEV by integrating data between 2018 and 2021 on antibodies against tick-borne flavivirus in fallow, muntjac, red and roe deer with data on potential risk factors, including climate, land use, forest connectivity and distributions of bank voles and yellow-necked mice. We overlayed modelled suitability for TBEV exposure across GB with estimations on number of visitors to predict areas of high human exposure risk.ResultsModels for fallow, muntjac and roe deer performed well in independent validation (Boyce index > 0.92). Probable exposure to TBEV was more likely to occur in sites with a greater percentage cover of coniferous woodland, with multiple deer species, higher winter temperatures and rates of spring warming.ConclusionThe resulting TBEV suitability maps can be used by public health bodies in GB to tailor surveillance and identify probable high-risk areas for human exposure to guide awareness raising and vaccination policy. Combining animal surveillance and iterative spatial risk modelling can enhance preparedness in areas of tick-borne disease emergence.
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