ArticleMalaria journal2025
Projection of future malaria prevalence in the upper river region of The Gambia.
Article in Malaria journal, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Geospatial-based surveillance of malaria risk in Dar es Salaam using a hybrid 3DCNN + LSTM and CA model.International journal of health geographics · 2026Review
- Polymeric microarray patches for transdermal delivery of amodiaquine and artesunate: A novel strategy againstMaterials today. Bio · 2025Article
- Environmental and socio-economic determinants of malaria transmission in West Africa: a systematic review.One health outlook · 2025Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThis work investigated the future (2021-2050) impact of Climate Change on Malaria Prevalence in the Upper River Region of The Gambia under two representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, comparing it with the observed evaluation period of 2011-2022.
methodsThe observed climatic variable data used was obtained from the Department of Water Resources and the corresponding malaria cases from the archive of the primary Health database, Banjul, The Gambia. Projected monthly temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity were downloaded from the coordinated Regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX) stimulation of the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric regional climate (RCA4). The dataset spans the decades from 2021 to 2050, providing insight into future climatic and epidemiological trends. Gradient Boost Machine Learning algorithm was utilized for the malaria projection both in the population below 5 and above five years.
resultsThe result revealed an increase in malaria incidence under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climatic scenarios for both age categories with a clear indication in the population above five years. DISCUSSION AND
conclusionThe result pictures how climate change will impact malaria under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios in the region and also clearly reveals that the upper river region of the Gambia population is at risk of malaria infection, thus, a strategic and robust intervention scheme is highly solicited.
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