Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40180995›Full record

ArticleScientific data2025

Potential tree cover under current and future climate scenarios.

Caspar T J Roebroek, Luca Caporaso, Gregory Duveiller, Edouard L Davin, Sonia I Seneviratne, Alessandro Cescatti

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific data, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Caspar T J RoebroekEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy. caspar.roebroek@ec.europa.eu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1733-0845
Luca CaporasoEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1370-693X
Gregory DuveillerMax Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6471-8404
Edouard L DavinWyss Academy for Nature, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3322-9330
Sonia I SeneviratneInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9528-2917
Alessandro CescattiEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy. alessandro.cescatti@ec.europa.eu.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Forests play a key role in the global commitments to reach carbon neutrality in the coming decades. Global maps of potential tree cover at high spatial resolution for current and future climate scenarios are needed to assess the risk of future forest carbon loss and carbon storage potential through afforestation/reforestation projects. Here, we present data integrating satellite-based tree cover observations into a machine learning framework to estimate tree cover carrying capacity (percentage of tree coverage), which reflects the maximum potential tree cover, accounting for natural disturbances. Our model improves upon previous estimates by reducing prediction errors, better aligning with tree cover observations in intact areas, and lowering spatial variance in areas without topographical variation. However, uncertainties remain, particularly in regions where human activity has significantly altered landscapes. The tree cover carrying capacity provides an estimate of potential tree cover based on climatic and soil conditions. This serves as an initial step in identifying afforestation/reforestation opportunities but should be further assessed for land-use competition, ecological feasibility, and other limitations.

Identifiers

PMID40180995
PMCPMC11968939

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.