Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40178041›Full record

ReviewInternational journal of methods in psychiatric research2025

Estimating Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Psychiatry: A Review and Tutorial With Causal Forests.

Erik Sverdrup, Maria Petukhova, Stefan Wager

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in International journal of methods in psychiatric research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Erik SverdrupDepartment of Econometrics & Business Statistics, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
Maria PetukhovaDepartment of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Stefan WagerGraduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.

Funding

Modifiable Risk and Protective Factors for Suicidal Behaviors in the US ArmyU01MH087981 · NIMH · HENRY M. JACKSON FDN FOR THE ADV MIL/MED · PI STEIN, MURRAY B., URSANO, ROBERT J. · 2009 to 2013
$65.0M
NIMH NIH HHS U01 MH087981NIMH NIH HHS U01MH087981U.S. Department of Defense HU0001-15-2-0004
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundFlexible machine learning tools are increasingly used to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects.

aimsThis paper gives an accessible tutorial demonstrating the use of the causal forest algorithm, available in the R package grf. SUMMARY: We start with a brief non-technical overview of treatment effect estimation methods, focusing on estimation in observational studies; the same techniques can also be applied in experimental studies. We then discuss the logic of estimating heterogeneous effects using the extension of the random forest algorithm implemented in grf. Finally, we illustrate causal forest by conducting a secondary analysis on the extent to which individual differences in resilience to high combat stress can be measured among US Army soldiers deploying to Afghanistan based on information about these soldiers available prior to deployment. We illustrate simple and interpretable exercises for model selection and evaluation, including targeting operator characteristics curves, Qini curves, area-under-the-curve summaries, and best linear projections.

resultsA replication script with simulated data is available at https://github.com/grf-labs/grf/tree/master/experiments/ijmpr.

Indexed as

Machine LearningOutcome Assessment, Health CarePsychiatryAlgorithmsData Interpretation, StatisticalHumansMilitary PersonnelTreatment Effect Heterogeneitycausal inferencemachine learningtreatment heterogeneity

Identifiers

PMID40178041
PMCPMC11966565

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.