Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40175010›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Public health2025

Changes in incarceration and tuberculosis notifications from prisons during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and the Americas: a time-series analysis of national surveillance data.

Amy Zheng, Lena Faust, Anthony D Harries, Pedro Avedillo, Michael Akodu, Miranda Galvan, Beatriz Barreto-Duarte, Bruno B Andrade, César Ugarte-Gil, Alberto L Garcia-Basteiro and 3 more

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Article in The Lancet. Public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Amy ZhengDepartment of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Lena FaustFaculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Anthony D HarriesFaculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, Paris, France.
Pedro AvedilloPan American Health Organization, Communicable Diseases and Environmental Determinants of Health, Washington, DC, USA.
Michael AkoduDepartment of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Miranda GalvanDepartment of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Beatriz Barreto-DuarteLaboratório de Pesquisa Clínica e Translacional, Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Salvador, Brazil; Institute for Research in Priority Populations, Multinational Organization Network Sponsoring Translational and Epidemiological Research Initiative, Salvador, Brazil; Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica e Translacional, Faculdade Zarns, Clariens Educação, Salvador, Brazil.
Bruno B AndradeLaboratório de Pesquisa Clínica e Translacional, Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Salvador, Brazil; Institute for Research in Priority Populations, Multinational Organization Network Sponsoring Translational and Epidemiological Research Initiative, Salvador, Brazil; Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica e Translacional, Faculdade Zarns, Clariens Educação, Salvador, Brazil.
César Ugarte-GilDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public and Population Health, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.
Alberto L Garcia-BasteiroCentro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça, Maputo, Mozambique; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Barcelona, Spain; ISGlobal, Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
Marcos EspinalPan American Health Organization, Communicable Diseases and Environmental Determinants of Health, Washington, DC, USA.
Joshua L WarrenDepartment of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
Leonardo MartinezDepartment of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: leomarti@bu.edu.

Funding

Predicting and monitoring variations in the effects of vaccines against RSVR01AI137093 · NIAID · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI Virginia E Pitzer, Daniel Martin Weinberger · 2018 to 2026
$3.4M
Identifying effective and efficient approaches to tuberculosis screening in BrazilianprisonsK01AI156022 · NIAID · BOSTON UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CAMPUS · PI MARTINEZ, LEONARDO · 2021 to 2025
$640k
NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI156022NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI137093
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic disrupted tuberculosis control programmes globally; whether or not this disproportionately affected people who were incarcerated is unknown. We aimed to evaluate changes in incarceration and tuberculosis notifications in prisons in Europe and the Americas during the COVID-19 pandemic.

methodsData from WHO Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and WHO Europe were used to conduct a joint hierarchical Bayesian negative binomial time-series. This approach accounted for world region, country-specific temporal trends, and country-specific autocorrelated random effects to simultaneously model and predict both annual prison population (ie, the offset) and prison tuberculosis cases (ie, the primary outcome). Results were used to calculate percentage differences between predicted and observed annual tuberculosis notifications and prison populations during the COVID-19 pandemic years (2020-22).

findingsIn total, 22 of 39 countries from PAHO and 25 of 53 countries from WHO Europe were included (representing 4·9 million people incarcerated annually), contributing 520 country-years of follow-up. Observed tuberculosis notifications in prisons were lower than predicted in 2020 (-26·2% [95% credible interval -66·3 to 7·8), 2021 (-46·4% [-108·8 to 3·9]), and 2022 (-48·9 [-124·4 to 10·3]). These decreasing trends were consistent across Europe and the Americas, but larger decreases were seen in low-burden settings in 2020 (-54·8% [-112·4 to -4·8]) and 2021 (-68·4% [-156·6 to -2·9]), high-burden settings in 2021 (-89·4% [-190·3 to -10·4]), and Central and North America in 2021 (-100·3% [-239·0 to -6·3]). Observed incarceration levels were similar to predicted levels (<10% difference overall) during all COVID-19 pandemic years.

interpretationTuberculosis notifications in prisons from 47 countries in Europe and the Americas were lower than expected (at times >50% lower) during COVID-19 pandemic years, despite consistent incarceration levels. Reasons for this change in tuberculosis notifications might be multifactorial and include missed diagnoses and implementation of COVID-19 pandemic measures, reducing transmission. Greater prioritisation of people who are incarcerated is needed to ensure appropriate access to care in the face of future pandemics.

fundingCanadian Institutes of Health Research, National Institutes of Health, and Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Brazil.

Indexed as

COVID-19PrisonersPrisonsTuberculosisAmericasDisease NotificationEuropeHumansIncarcerationPandemics

Identifiers

PMID40175010
PMCPMC11962358

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.