A dynamic transmission model for assessing the impact of pneumococcal vaccination in the United States.

Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP) is a bacterial pathogen that kills more than 300,000 children every year across the globe. Multiple vaccines exist that prevent pneumococcal disease, with each vaccine covering a variable number of the more than 100 known serotypes. Due to the high effectiveness of these vaccines, each new pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction has resulted in a decrease in vaccine-type disease and a shift in the serotype distribution towards non-vaccine types in a phenomenon called serotype replacement. Here, an age-structured compartmental model was created that reproduced historical carriage transmission dynamics in the United States and was used to evaluate the population-level impact of new vaccine introductions into the pediatric population. The model incorporates co-colonization and serotype competition, which drives replacement of the vaccine types by the non-vaccine types. The model was calibrated to historical age- and serotype-specific invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) data from the United States. Vaccine-specific coverage and effectiveness were integrated in accordance with the recommended timelines for each age group. Demographic parameters were derived from US-population-specific databases, while population mixing patterns were informed by US-specific published literature on age-group based mixing matrices. The calibrated model was then used to project the epidemiological impact of PCV15, a 15-valent pneumococcal vaccine, compared with the status quo vaccination with PCV13 and demonstrated the value of added serotypes in PCV15. Projections revealed that PCV15 would reduce IPD incidence by 6.04% (range: 6.01% to 6.06%) over 10 years when compared to PCV13.