Modelling of childbearing progression among women living with HIV in Ibadan, Nigeria.

backgroundChildbearing is a major concern for women living with HIV especially in low-middle income countries. There are fears about access to care, risk of vertical transmission, health challenges, maternal and child morbidity/mortality. Investigation of childbearing progression and its associated factors among these women will be useful for design of reproductive healthcare services of these women and ultimately address their multifaceted concerns. This study examined childbearing progression and its correlates another among women living with HIV in Ibadan.

methodThe study used a dataset from a cross-sectional study on childbearing progression among 933 respondents aged (18-49) receiving HIV care at the University College Hospital, Ibadan. Synthetic Relational Gompertz method was used to estimate fertility rate in the study population while a multistate model was developed to identify the factors associated with progression from one birth to the next.

resultsThe average age of participants was 38 years, with majority being Yoruba tribe (80.5%). Nearly all had at least basic education (93%), and about half had 1-2 children at the time of their HIV diagnosis (47.6%). The likelihood of progressing from the first to a second birth was 77%, though no specific factors were statistically significant. However, progression to a third birth was significantly less likely (86% lower), and associated with factors such as: Having 1-2 children at HIV diagnosis (59% less likely to progress). Having more than 2 children at HIV diagnosis (94% more likely to progress), marital status (widowed women were 36% more likely to progress), partner's education (secondary education increased the likelihood by 23%), partner's employment status (unemployed partners increased the likelihood by 40%), desire for more children, partner's HIV-negative status. Progression to fourth and subsequent births showed a continued decline, with the likelihood of a fourth birth being 82% lower and a fifth or sixth birth 85% lower. Women with secondary education were significantly less likely to progress to fifth births.

conclusionOverall, the corrected total fertility rate is 3.54, it's below the national estimates and Southwest region which implies fertility is declining among women living with HIV in Ibadan. The findings revealed the relevance of socio-economic and demographic factors in childbearing progression among women living with HIV. Focused interventions should aim to provide better family planning support and integrate reproductive health counseling into HIV care programs.