ArticleLiver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver2025
How Secondary Interventions Reduce the Burden of Alcohol Consumption at Risk of Cirrhosis: A Public Health Decision-Making Model.
Article in Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- The Economic Impact of Cirrhosis and Other Chronic Liver Diseases on Global, Regional, and National Economies.Clinical and translational gastroenterology · 2026Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundBetter understanding of the kinetics of the consumption of alcohol at risk of cirrhosis (≥ 20 g/day) and the prediction of the burden of alcohol consumption are needed for public health decision-making.
methodsBased on individual data from 45 054 individuals, collected from the French Health, Health Care and Insurance Survey between 2002 and 2014, a Markov model was developed to predict the future burden of alcohol consumption ≥ 20 g/day. This estimated the incidence of alcohol intake with an intermediate (20-50 g/day) or high (≥ 50 g/day) risk of cirrhosis. The impact of five primary or secondary interventions was evaluated between 2024 and 2030.
resultsA 1 L increase in per capita alcohol consumption was associated with a 7% increase in the risk of progression to 20-50 g/day and to ≥ 50 g/day (HR = 1.07, 95% CI 1.06-1.07). Female gender was associated with a lower risk (HR = 0.47, 95% CI 0.43-0.51) and age < 45 years with a higher risk (HR = 4.15, 95% CI 2.60-6.63) of consuming ≥ 50 g/day. In 2023, 2.5 million French individuals aged 15-74 years old drank ≥ 20 g/day (5.5%), and 435 000 of these drank ≥ 50 g/day. Based on the status quo (SQ), this prevalence would be 5.1% in 2030, and would not be influenced by primary prevention, but would be reduced by secondary interventions (from -2.0% to -13.7% compared to the SQ depending on the rate of implementation).
conclusionsPrimary interventions are important to reduce the overall impact of alcohol on health. The strategy of targeting individuals who already drink ≥ 20 g/day of alcohol is more effective in reducing the short-term burden of alcohol consumption at risk of cirrhosis than primary interventions. Thus, primary and secondary interventions need to be implemented jointly.
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